chestnutforty/forecast-snapshots-metaculus-2cc65706d0

metaculus_38596

38596

What will be the value of "the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis" on 2025-08-28?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39254/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dgs3-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DGS3 is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis. The title of the series is "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 3.7. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3. Below are the notes attached to the series: > H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). > > For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p> `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"DGS3"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DGS3 once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,076,816

2025-08-24T16:06:56

4.671481

1,756,587,469

null

3.6

null

true

3.6

null

3.499

4.337

null

true

null

metaculus_38593

38593

What will be the value of "the upper limit of the target range of the federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Open Market Committee" on 2025-08-27?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39251/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dfedtaru-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DFEDTARU is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the upper limit of the target range of the federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The title of the series is "Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-17 and has a value of 4.5. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This series represents upper limit of the federal funds target range established by the Federal Open Market Committee. The data updated each day is the data effective as of that day. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"DFEDTARU"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DFEDTARU once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,959,755

2025-08-23T07:35:55

3.316609

1,756,587,465

null

4.5

null

true

4.5

null

4.5

5.5

null

true

null

metaculus_38592

38592

What will be the value of "the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Index

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39250/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-vixcls-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series VIXCLS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index. The title of the series is "CBOE Volatility Index: VIX". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 14.83. The units of the series are "Index". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS. Below are the notes attached to the series: > VIX measures market expectation of near term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices. Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"VIXCLS"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series VIXCLS once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,222,371

2025-08-26T08:32:51

6.356146

1,756,853,190

null

15.36

null

true

15.36

null

14.16

28.75

null

true

null

metaculus_38591

38591

What will be the value of "the Federal Reserve's overnight bank funding rate" on 2025-08-26?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39249/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-obfr-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series OBFR is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Federal Reserve's overnight bank funding rate. The title of the series is "Overnight Bank Funding Rate". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 4.33. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBFR. Below are the notes attached to the series: > The overnight bank funding rate is calculated using federal funds transactions and certain Eurodollar transactions. The federal funds market consists of domestic unsecured borrowings in U.S. dollars by depository institutions from other depository institutions and certain other entities, primarily government-sponsored enterprises, while the Eurodollar market consists of unsecured U.S. dollar deposits held at banks or bank branches outside of the United States. U.S.-based banks can also take Eurodollar deposits domestically through international banking facilities (IBFs). The overnight bank funding rate (OBFR) is calculated as a volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions and Eurodollar transactions reported in the FR 2420 Report of Selected Money Market Rates. > Volume-weighted median is the rate associated with transactions at the 50th percentile of transaction volume. Specifically, the volume-weighted median rate is calculated by ordering the transactions from lowest to highest rate, taking the cumulative sum of volumes of these transactions, and identifying the rate associated with the trades at the 50th percentile of dollar volume. The published rates are the volume-weighted median transacted rate, rounded to the nearest basis point. > For more information, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/obfrinfo `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"OBFR"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series OBFR once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,943,299

2025-08-23T03:01:39

3.126146

1,756,587,465

null

4.33

null

true

4.33

null

4.33

5.33

null

true

null

metaculus_38589

38589

What will be the value of "the price of Brent crude oil" on 2025-08-22?

numeric

Dollars per Barrel

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39247/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dcoilbrenteu-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DCOILBRENTEU is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the price of Brent crude oil. The title of the series is "Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-11 and has a value of 67.36. The units of the series are "Dollars per Barrel". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU. Below are the notes attached to the series: > Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes (http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp) `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"DCOILBRENTEU"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DCOILBRENTEU once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,815,785

2025-08-21T15:36:25

1.650289

1,756,587,466

null

68.29

null

true

68.29

null

64.8635

80.3155

null

true

null

metaculus_38586

38586

What will be the value of "the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the US" on 2025-08-28?

numeric

Index

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39244/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-usepuindxd-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series USEPUINDXD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the US. The title of the series is "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 218.9. The units of the series are "Index". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD. Below are the notes attached to the series: > The daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is based on newspapers in the United States. > > For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2012), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf) `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"USEPUINDXD"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series USEPUINDXD once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,008,424

2025-08-23T21:07:04

3.879907

1,756,587,472

null

243.9

null

true

243.9

null

66.18

676.42

null

true

null

metaculus_38585

38585

What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market" on 2025-08-27?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39243/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlh0a1hybb-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLH0A1HYBB is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market. The title of the series is "ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 1.78. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A1HYBB. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US Corporate BB Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BB. > The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. > > Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. > > Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices. > > The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. > Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. > The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. > You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. > ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. > You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. > Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. > ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. > The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLH0A1HYBB once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,236,289

2025-08-26T12:24:49

6.517234

1,756,587,467

null

1.74

null

true

1.74

null

1.6

2.542

null

true

null

metaculus_38584

38584

What will be the value of "the effective yield of securities with a remaining term to maturity of 7-10 years in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market" on 2025-08-28?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39242/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlc4a0c710yey-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLC4A0C710YEY is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the effective yield of securities with a remaining term to maturity of 7-10 years in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market. The title of the series is "ICE BofA 7-10 Year US Corporate Index Effective Yield". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 5.08. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC4A0C710YEY. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA 7-10 Year US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a remaining term to maturity of greater than or equal to 7 years and less than 10 years. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. > > Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. > > Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices. > > The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. > Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. > The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. > You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. > ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. > You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. > Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. > ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. > The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLC4A0C710YEY once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,887,162

2025-08-22T11:26:02

2.476412

1,756,587,465

null

5.02

null

true

5.02

null

4.839

5.572

null

true

null

metaculus_38583

38583

What will be the value of "the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Reserve" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39241/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-effr-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series EFFR is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Reserve. The title of the series is "Effective Federal Funds Rate". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 4.33. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR. Below are the notes attached to the series: > For additional historical federal funds rate data, please see Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951). > > The federal funds market consists of domestic unsecured borrowings in U.S. dollars by depository institutions from other depository institutions and certain other entities, primarily government-sponsored enterprises. > > The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as a volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions reported in the FR 2420 Report of Selected Money Market Rates. > > For more information, visit the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/obfrinfo). `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"EFFR"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series EFFR once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,966,507

2025-08-23T09:28:27

3.394757

1,756,853,190

null

4.33

null

true

4.33

null

4.33

5.33

null

true

null

metaculus_38581

38581

What will be the value of "the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Billions of US Dollars

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39239/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-rrpontsyd-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series RRPONTSYD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations. The title of the series is "Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-15 and has a value of 33.757. The units of the series are "Billions of US Dollars". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RRP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations. > > Temporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market. > > A reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies. > For more information, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"RRPONTSYD"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series RRPONTSYD once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,353,080

2025-08-27T20:51:20

7.868981

1,756,587,466

null

77.898

null

true

77.898

null

76.5762

378.56915

null

true

null

metaculus_38580

38580

What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39238/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlemcbpioas-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLEMCBPIOAS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets. The title of the series is "ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Option-Adjusted Spread". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 1.51. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPIOAS. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPITRIV?cid=32413), which tracks the performance of US dollar (USD) and Euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued within the major domestic and Eurobond markets. To qualify for inclusion in the index, the issuer of debt must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX G10 (US, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Sweden, UK, Switzerland, Norway, and Euro Currency Members), all Western European countries, and territories of the US and Western European countries. Each security must also be denominated in USD or Euro with a time to maturity greater than 1 year and have a fixed coupon. For inclusion in the index, investment grade rated bonds of qualifying issuers must have at least 250 million (Euro or USD) in outstanding face value, and below investment grade rated bonds must have at least 100 million (Euro or USD) in outstanding face value. The index includes corporate and quasi-government debt of qualifying countries, but excludes sovereign and supranational debt. Other types of securities acceptable for inclusion in this index are: original issue zero coupon bonds, "global" securities (debt issued in the US domestic bond markets as well the Eurobond Market simultaneously), 144a securities, pay-in-kind securities (includes toggle notes), callable perpetual securities (qualify if they are at least one year from the first call date), fixed-to-floating rate securities (qualify if the securities are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security). Defaulted securities are excluded from the Index. > ICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as: > Index constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of US mortgage pass-throughs and US structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for US mortgage pass-through and US structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until > the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index. > > The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. > > Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. > > Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices. > > The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. > Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. > The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. > You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. > ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. > You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. > Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. > ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. > The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLEMCBPIOAS once the data is published.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,342,194

2025-08-27T17:49:54

7.742986

1,757,153,528

null

1.55

null

true

1.55

null

1.589

2.061

null

true

null

metaculus_38576

38576

Will the community prediction be higher than 54.00% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39234/will-community-prediction-rise-for-executive-branch-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-the-supreme-court-by-jan-20-2029/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192 - Original question title: Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 54.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, any federal court or the Supreme Court of the United States formally holds any agency or official of the executive branch in contempt (civil or criminal) for either: > > * direct non-compliance with a Supreme Court order, judgment, or mandate OR > * non-compliance with a federal court order that implements a Supreme Court mandate. For this to count, the contempt order has to explicitly cite that Supreme Court mandate. Original fine print: > * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the contempt ruling is later reversed. > * Federal courts [consist of](https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts) federal district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court. Original background: > According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court  > > > shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command. > > At the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars),  > > > The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve. > > Almost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):   > > > The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO. > > At the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed.  > > In another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing: > > > In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance > > The Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration. > > However, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders):  > > > The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling > > See Also: > > * Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf) > * Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/) `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38192,"question_id":37478,"last_cp":0.54}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192. If the community prediction on 2025-08-26 16:49:22 is higher than 54.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,947,967

2025-08-23T04:19:27

3.180174

1,756,587,425

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38573

38573

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39231/will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850 - Original question title: Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025. Original fine print: > No fine print provided Original background: > In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water).  > > After privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion. > > After Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities. > > In June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation. `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38850,"question_id":38163,"last_cp":0.2}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,424,448

2025-08-28T16:40:48

8.695

1,756,587,431

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38572

38572

Will the community prediction be higher than 98.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39230/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-openai-surpass-15-million-business-users-before-2030/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38867 - Original question title: Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 98.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI has reached at least 15 million business users. If no such reports are published, this question will resolve as **No.** Original fine print: > No fine print provided Original background: > On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all). > > Business subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html). `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38867,"question_id":38184,"last_cp":0.98}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38867. If the community prediction on 2025-08-25 10:56:40 is higher than 98.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,814,104

2025-08-21T15:08:24

1.630833

1,756,587,432

null

1.0

null

true

yes

1.0

null

metaculus_38568

38568

Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39226/will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353 - Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 15.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc. Original fine print: > * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off. > * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO). > * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity. > * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis. > > This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources. Original background: > On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership. > > See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/) `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":37353,"question_id":36713,"last_cp":0.15}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 23:09:39 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,923,193

2025-08-22T21:26:33

2.893438

1,756,587,439

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38567

38567

Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39225/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822 - Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 50.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 "Statement of Organization" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party). Original fine print: > If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**. > > If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter.  > > Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party. Original background: > Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america) > > > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law. > > > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money. > > > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday. > > ‎ > > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of "America Party" of "DOGE" or "X" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as "wentsnowboarding \[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses. > > A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false.  `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38822,"question_id":38143,"last_cp":0.5}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,416,921

2025-08-28T14:35:21

8.607882

1,756,587,439

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38563

38563

Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39221/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783 - Original question title: Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026. Original fine print: > No fine print provided Original background: > ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025) > > > President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will "have to take a look" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f). > >   > > Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the "Big Beautiful Bill," arguing that it was adding more debt. > >   > > "It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!," Musk posted Monday afternoon. > > NPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025) > > > Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division. > >   > > "The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence," he said. > >   > > The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American. > >   > > . . .  > >   > > The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University. > >   > > In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases. `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38783,"question_id":38099,"last_cp":0.05}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 15:51:07 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,845,236

2025-08-21T23:47:16

1.991157

1,756,587,451

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38561

38561

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39219/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-maxwell-testify-on-the-epstein-files-or-trumpin-congress-before-2026/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38916 - Original question title: Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ghislaine Maxwell has testified under oath at a hearing, in person or remotely, in either the US House of Representatives or US Senate regarding either what is popularly known as the Epstein Files (defined in the Fine Print) or Donald Trump’s association with Epstein. > > The question resolves as **No** if this does not occur before that date. It may also resolve as **No** in the event of Maxwell being permanently unable to testify, such as her death. Original fine print: > * The Epstein Files [is defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list) any of the evidence of criminal cases on the part of Jeffrey Epstein or any of his clients or associates, including but not limited to his contacts list or his flight logs. > * Any questioning regarding Donald Trump’s association with Epstein, including Maxwell denying or failing to recall any such association will count. > * In order to count, a hearing must include oral questioning by House members or Senators. Any hearing qualifies, including public, closed, or even secret hearings, as long as credible sources report before January 1, 2026 that Maxwell testified under oath regarding the Epstein Files or Trump's association with Epstein. > * Depositions do not count. Maxwell must appear at a hearing for this question to resolve as Yes. > * Maxwell invoking her Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination, even if invoked on every question, will not affect resolution.  Original background: > According to the [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2025/07/22/us-news/house-oversight-committee-to-subpoena-ghislaine-maxwell-for-testimony/) on July 22, 2025:  > > > The powerful GOP-led House Oversight Committee will “seek to subpoena” convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell for testimony about the Jeffrey Epstein case “as expeditiously as possible,” a spokesperson confirmed Tuesday. > > > Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote. > > > “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said. > > Maxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad.  > > President Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a "SCAM" and a "hoax." According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years. > > Alan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell: > > > She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything. `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38916,"question_id":38264,"last_cp":0.2}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38916. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 05:08:06 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,761,512

2025-08-21T00:31:52

1.02213

1,756,587,452

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38560

38560

Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39218/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768 - Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 1.10% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days. Original fine print: > “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations. Original background: > Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention. > > Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_$2023%E2%80%93present$). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping.  > > In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal) > > In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled.  `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38768,"question_id":38065,"last_cp":0.011}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768. If the community prediction on 2025-08-27 12:08:16 is higher than 1.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,266,934

2025-08-26T20:55:34

6.871921

1,756,587,452

null

1.0

null

true

yes

1.0

null

metaculus_38556

38556

Will Eintracht Frankfurt secure a victory in their Bundesliga fixture on August 23, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39214/will-eintracht-frankfurt-secure-a-victory-in-their-bundesliga-fixture-on-august-23-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"3b755301-0fde-48ab-adf6-9c419ea7c7e7"}}`

This question concerns the Bundesliga contest featuring Eintracht Frankfurt, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the result achieved by Eintracht Frankfurt during the standard 90 minutes of play, including any additional stoppage time, but excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Should Eintracht Frankfurt emerge as the winner at the conclusion of this period, the answer will be 'Yes'. Conversely, if they are defeated, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the match is ultimately abandoned and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. All outcomes are based solely on the official result at the end of regular time plus stoppage time.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,951,446

2025-08-23T05:17:26

3.22044

1,756,587,472

null

1.0

null

true

yes

1.0

null

metaculus_38555

38555

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39213/will-ukrainian-forces-secure-control-of-the-specified-crossroads-near-vilne-and-kucheriv-yar-by-august-22-2025-as-indicated-by-isw-mapping-or-equivalent-criteria/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"363f175f-66f7-4609-903a-b2196211c889"}}`

For this question, a positive outcome will be determined if, on or before August 22, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, either of the two designated junctions—one in Vilne and one in Kucheriv Yar—are shown as at least partially under Ukrainian control on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). Specifically, the relevant intersections must display any blue shading that denotes either 'Claimed Ukrainian Counter Offensive' or 'Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours' as of the deadline. If neither intersection is marked in this manner by the cutoff, the answer will be negative. Should Ukrainian forces assume actual control of these locations through a mutually agreed settlement, this will also satisfy the criteria for a positive result, even if the ISW map does not reflect the change. However, mere announcements of a settlement or agreements that only grant Ukraine legal (de jure) authority, without physical control, will not suffice. Only established, on-the-ground control is relevant. Once either intersection is confirmed as under Ukrainian control according to the above standards, any subsequent loss of the area will not affect the outcome. Reference images for the precise locations are available here: - Vilne intersection: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png - Kucheriv Yar intersection: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png - Combined/zoomed view: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg - General area: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg Google Maps references: - Vilne: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5 - Kucheriv Yar: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7 The ISW Ukraine map is the primary verification tool. If it becomes inaccessible, DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) will serve as a backup. Should both sources be permanently unavailable, a consensus from reputable news outlets will be used. Temporary technical issues or errors in mapping tools will be disregarded for the purposes of this question.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,844,948

2025-08-21T23:42:28

1.987824

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38553

38553

Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave secure first place at the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz event?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39211/will-maxime-vachier-lagrave-secure-first-place-at-the-2025-saint-louis-rapid-blitz-event/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"f5419acf-af99-4e24-9d05-534b3f4a6017"}}`

Determination of this question hinges on whether Maxime Vachier-Lagrave is officially recognized as the overall winner of the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition. Should he be declared the champion, the answer will be "Yes"; in all other circumstances, including if another participant claims victory, the response will be "No". If the tournament is called off or fails to reach completion by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on October 1, 2025, the answer will default to "No". The primary reference for establishing the outcome will be the official communications from the event’s organizing body. In the absence of clear official confirmation, widely accepted reports from reputable sources may be consulted to reach a consensus. All aspects of this question pertain exclusively to the 2025 edition of the Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,777,395

2025-08-21T04:56:35

1.205961

1,756,587,475

null

0.0

null

true

annulled

0.0

null

metaculus_38551

38551

Is a monetary contribution from Drake to Team Water confirmed by August 22, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39209/is-a-monetary-contribution-from-drake-to-team-water-confirmed-by-august-22-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"42ddf47b-891d-4869-921d-d9a33d33e8cb"}}`

A determination of 'Yes' will be made if, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025, Drake is verified to have provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative led by MrBeast. Verification will primarily rely on disclosures from teamwater.org, but may also incorporate direct statements from Drake or MrBeast, as well as corroboration from reputable news organizations. If no such donation is substantiated by the specified deadline, the answer will be 'No'. The underlying campaign aims to secure $40 million to supply long-term clean water access to two million individuals.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,967,025

2025-08-23T09:37:05

3.400752

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

annulled

0.0

null

metaculus_38548

38548

Will FSV Mainz 05 secure a victory in their match on August 24, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39206/will-fsv-mainz-05-secure-a-victory-in-their-match-on-august-24-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"e65edc13-62e9-4c3a-b5eb-43cf9e4c741d"}}`

This question concerns the result of the BUN fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 24, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should FSV Mainz 05 be ahead at this point, the answer will be 'Yes'. If they are not leading, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the contest is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. Only the initial scheduled match and its regulation time outcome are relevant for this question.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,151,807

2025-08-25T12:56:47

5.539433

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

annulled

0.0

null

metaculus_38544

38544

Will the match between FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln on August 24 conclude with both teams having identical scores?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39202/will-the-match-between-fsv-mainz-05-and-1-fc-koln-on-august-24-conclude-with-both-teams-having-identical-scores/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"35557527-4ade-408d-b2df-253fb3f2608e"}}`

This question pertains to the Bundesliga fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln, set to commence at 9:30AM ET on August 24. Should the contest finish with both sides having accumulated the same number of goals at the final whistle, the answer will be 'Yes'. Any other result, where one team outscores the other, will yield a 'No' response. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the event is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will default to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,920,106

2025-08-22T20:35:06

2.857708

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38543

38543

Will SC Freiburg secure a victory on August 23, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39201/will-sc-freiburg-secure-a-victory-on-august-23-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"63b05e86-bc68-42e1-b603-748c6c3a5546"}}`

This question concerns the result of the Bundesliga fixture featuring SC Freiburg, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination will be based solely on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should SC Freiburg be ahead at this point, the answer will be 'Yes'. If they are not leading, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the contest is played. If the fixture is ultimately abandoned and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. Only the specified match and timeframe are relevant for this question.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,854,111

2025-08-22T02:15:11

2.093877

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38542

38542

Is a monetary contribution from Kai Cenat to Team Water recorded by August 22, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39200/is-a-monetary-contribution-from-kai-cenat-to-team-water-recorded-by-august-22-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"b44536fa-bec7-4e47-acbf-d4639d1fd955"}}`

A determination will be made based on whether Kai Cenat (see: https://www.youtube.com/c/KaiCenat) is documented as having provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative, which is associated with MrBeast, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025. Verification will primarily rely on the official teamwater.org platform, but may also incorporate statements from MrBeast, Kai Cenat, or a consensus among reputable news sources. Should such a donation be confirmed within the specified timeframe, the answer will be 'Yes'; if not, the answer will be 'No'. The campaign in question seeks to secure $40 million to supply clean water to two million individuals for an extended period.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,939,136

2025-08-23T01:52:16

3.077963

1,756,587,474

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38541

38541

Is parity the final result in the August 23rd contest between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39199/is-parity-the-final-result-in-the-august-23rd-contest-between-eintracht-frankfurt-and-werder-bremen/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"3a6c8074-b350-4e8c-9788-a9cefad1c26e"}}`

This question pertains to the Bundesliga fixture featuring Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen, set to commence at 9:30AM ET on August 23. Should the match conclude with both teams having identical scores at the end of regulation, the answer will be 'Yes'. Any other outcome, where one side finishes with a higher tally than the other, will result in a 'No' response. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the event is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will default to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,905,855

2025-08-22T16:37:35

2.692766

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38540

38540

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39198/will-goma-be-under-the-control-of-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-on-august-25-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"24ec0e88-0bcb-4a7b-aabf-3bc671c5ec90"}}`

Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that the March 23 Movement rebels have withdrawn from Goma and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is in control of the city on August 25, 2025. Fineprint: If there is any ambiguity, this question will resolve based upon control of Goma International Airport, specifically the coordinates of -1.6584, 29.2400 at 00:00 UTC on August 25, 2025. Description: As of mid-June 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda were in active conflict. The conflict stretches back to the [Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide) of 1994, when over a million [Hutus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutu) fled from Rwanda to eastern DRC, including perpetrators of the genocide who continued cross-border attacks. Since then, Rwanda has [repeatedly intervened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_conflict) militarily in eastern DRC, ostensibly to pursue genocidal forces but also to exploit the region's vast mineral wealth. The strategic city of [Goma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goma), capital of North Kivu province, has been a focal point of these conflicts. Rwanda has consistently backed various rebel groups, most notably the [March 23 Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_23_Movement) (M23), which claims to represent Tutsi interests but operates with significant Rwandan military support and has generated substantial revenue through [illegal mineral exports](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-rebel-gains-boost-illicit-mineral-trade-through-rwanda-analysts-say-2025-01-28/) via Rwanda. The conflict [further escalated](https://www.dw.com/en/congo-violence-m23-raw-materials/a-71417304) in 2025, with M23 rebels [capturing Goma](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/risk-of-regional-conflict-following-fall-of-goma-and-m23-offensive-in-the-drc/) in late January, [displacing over 178,000 people](https://apnews.com/article/congo-rebels-m23-displaced-conflict-bdd3579ee7852722a2dbc5aa37c75d62), with M23 also capturing the key supply town of [Minova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minova) in South Kivu. Rwanda has never admitted that it funded M23, but on June 19, 2025, [reached a peace agreement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr795jjrnnlo) with DRC, mediated by the US and Qatar. No details of the peace deal, that is expected to be formally signed before the end of June, were reported in the initial announcement.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,890,395

2025-08-22T12:19:55

2.513831

1,757,153,529

null

0.0

null

true

annulled

0.0

null

metaculus_38533

38533

Will CI's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-27?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39191/cis-close-price-rises/

The Cigna Group is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:19) is 296.86. You can find more information about The Cigna Group at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CI The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. Its Evernorth Health Services segment provides a range of coordinated and point solution health services, including pharmacy benefits, home delivery pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, distribution, and care delivery and management solutions to health plans, employers, government organizations, and health care providers. The company's Cigna Healthcare segment offers medical, pharmacy, behavioral health, dental, and other products and services for insured and self-insured customers; Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, and Medicare Part D plans for seniors, as well as individual health insurance plans; and health care coverage in its international markets, as well as health care benefits for mobile individuals and employees of multinational organizations. In addition, it offers permanent insurance contracts sold to corporations to provide coverage on the lives of certain employees for financing employer-paid future benefit obligations and stop loss insurance. The company distributes its products and services through insurance brokers and consultants; directly to employers, unions and other groups, or individuals; and private and public exchanges. The company was formerly known as Cigna Corporation and changed its name to The Cigna Group in February 2023. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"CI"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CI. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,294,281

2025-08-27T04:31:21

7.188438

1,756,587,455

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38525

38525

Will LHX's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-26?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39183/lhxs-close-price-rises/

L3Harris Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LHX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:06) is 270.55. You can find more information about L3Harris Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. It operates through Space & Airborne Systems (SAS), Integrated Mission Systems (IMS), Communication Systems (CS), and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) segments. The SAS segment provides satellite space payloads, sensors, and full-mission solutions; classified intelligence and cyber; airborne combat systems; and mission networks for air traffic management operations. The IMS segment offers intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems; passive sensing and targeting; electronic attack platforms; autonomy; power and communications; networks; and sensors. The CS segment provides tactical radios, software, waveforms, satellite terminals, and end-to-end battlefield systems for the U.S. Department of Defense, international, federal, and state agency customers; broadband communications; integrated vision solutions, including helmet-mounted integrated night vision goggles with image intensifier tubes and weapon-mounted sights, aiming lasers, and range finders; and public safety radios, and system applications and equipment. The AR segment offers propulsion technologies and armament systems for strategic defense, missile defense, hypersonic, and tactical systems; and space propulsion and power systems for national security space and exploration missions. The company was formerly known as Harris Corporation and changed its name to L3Harris Technologies, Inc. in June 2019. L3Harris Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is based in Melbourne, Florida. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"LHX"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LHX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,169,652

2025-08-25T17:54:12

5.745972

1,756,587,458

null

1.0

null

true

yes

1.0

null

metaculus_38524

38524

Will IPG's market close price on 2025-08-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-23?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39182/ipgs-close-price-rises/

The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IPG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:05) is 26.09. You can find more information about The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPG The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. provides advertising and marketing services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Media, Data & Engagement Solutions, Integrated Advertising & Creativity Led Solutions, and Specialized Communications & Experiential Solutions. The Media, Data & Engagement Solutions segment provides media and communications services, digital services and products, advertising and marketing technology, e-commerce services, data management and analytics, strategic consulting, and digital brand experience under the IPG Mediabrands, UM, Initiative, Kinesso, Acxiom, Huge, MRM, and R/GA brand names. The Integrated Advertising & Creativity Led Solutions segment offers advertising, corporate, and brand identity services; and strategic consulting under FCB, IPG Health, McCann Worldgroup, and MullenLowe Group brands. The Specialized Communications & Experiential Solutions segment provides public relations and other specialized communications services, live events, sports and entertainment marketing, and strategic consulting under IPG DXTRA Health, The Weber Shandwick Collective, Golin, Jack Morton, Momentum, and Octagon brand names. The company was formerly known as McCann-Erickson Incorporated and changed its name to The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. in January 1961. The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in New York, New York. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"IPG"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of IPG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-23, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,755,926,044

2025-08-22T22:14:04

2.926435

1,756,587,458

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38520

38520

Will STLD's market close price on 2025-08-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-25?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39178/stlds-close-price-rises/

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STLD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:28:58) is 126.42. You can find more information about Steel Dynamics, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products. This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, owners, brokers, and governmental entities. The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"STLD"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STLD. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,673,200

2025-08-20T00:00:00

1,756,113,859

2025-08-25T02:24:19

5.10022

1,756,587,460

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38596

38596

What will be the value of "the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis" on 2025-08-28?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39254/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dgs3-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DGS3 is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis. The title of the series is "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 3.7. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3. Below are the notes attached to the series: > H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). > > For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p> `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"DGS3"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DGS3 once the data is published.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,076,816

2025-08-24T16:06:56

1.671481

1,756,587,469

null

3.6

null

true

3.6

null

3.499

4.337

null

true

null

metaculus_38592

38592

What will be the value of "the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Index

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39250/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-vixcls-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series VIXCLS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index. The title of the series is "CBOE Volatility Index: VIX". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 14.83. The units of the series are "Index". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS. Below are the notes attached to the series: > VIX measures market expectation of near term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices. Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"VIXCLS"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series VIXCLS once the data is published.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,222,371

2025-08-26T08:32:51

3.356146

1,756,853,190

null

15.36

null

true

15.36

null

14.16

28.75

null

true

null

metaculus_38585

38585

What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market" on 2025-08-27?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39243/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlh0a1hybb-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLH0A1HYBB is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market. The title of the series is "ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 1.78. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A1HYBB. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US Corporate BB Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BB. > The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. > > Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. > > Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices. > > The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. > Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. > The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. > You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. > ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. > You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. > Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. > ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. > The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLH0A1HYBB once the data is published.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,236,289

2025-08-26T12:24:49

3.517234

1,756,587,467

null

1.74

null

true

1.74

null

1.6

2.542

null

true

null

metaculus_38581

38581

What will be the value of "the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Billions of US Dollars

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39239/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-rrpontsyd-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series RRPONTSYD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations. The title of the series is "Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-15 and has a value of 33.757. The units of the series are "Billions of US Dollars". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RRP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations. > > Temporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market. > > A reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies. > For more information, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"RRPONTSYD"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series RRPONTSYD once the data is published.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,353,080

2025-08-27T20:51:20

4.868981

1,756,587,466

null

77.898

null

true

77.898

null

76.5762

378.56915

null

true

null

metaculus_38580

38580

What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39238/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlemcbpioas-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLEMCBPIOAS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets. The title of the series is "ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Option-Adjusted Spread". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 1.51. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPIOAS. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPITRIV?cid=32413), which tracks the performance of US dollar (USD) and Euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued within the major domestic and Eurobond markets. To qualify for inclusion in the index, the issuer of debt must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX G10 (US, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Sweden, UK, Switzerland, Norway, and Euro Currency Members), all Western European countries, and territories of the US and Western European countries. Each security must also be denominated in USD or Euro with a time to maturity greater than 1 year and have a fixed coupon. For inclusion in the index, investment grade rated bonds of qualifying issuers must have at least 250 million (Euro or USD) in outstanding face value, and below investment grade rated bonds must have at least 100 million (Euro or USD) in outstanding face value. The index includes corporate and quasi-government debt of qualifying countries, but excludes sovereign and supranational debt. Other types of securities acceptable for inclusion in this index are: original issue zero coupon bonds, "global" securities (debt issued in the US domestic bond markets as well the Eurobond Market simultaneously), 144a securities, pay-in-kind securities (includes toggle notes), callable perpetual securities (qualify if they are at least one year from the first call date), fixed-to-floating rate securities (qualify if the securities are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security). Defaulted securities are excluded from the Index. > ICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as: > Index constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of US mortgage pass-throughs and US structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for US mortgage pass-through and US structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until > the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index. > > The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. > > Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. > > Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices. > > The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. > Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. > The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. > You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. > ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. > You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. > Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. > ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. > The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLEMCBPIOAS once the data is published.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,342,194

2025-08-27T17:49:54

4.742986

1,757,153,528

null

1.55

null

true

1.55

null

1.589

2.061

null

true

null

metaculus_38573

38573

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39231/will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850 - Original question title: Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025. Original fine print: > No fine print provided Original background: > In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water).  > > After privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion. > > After Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities. > > In June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation. `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38850,"question_id":38163,"last_cp":0.2}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,424,448

2025-08-28T16:40:48

5.695

1,756,587,431

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38567

38567

Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39225/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822 - Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 50.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 "Statement of Organization" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party). Original fine print: > If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**. > > If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter.  > > Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party. Original background: > Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america) > > > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law. > > > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money. > > > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday. > > ‎ > > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of "America Party" of "DOGE" or "X" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as "wentsnowboarding \[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses. > > A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false.  `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38822,"question_id":38143,"last_cp":0.5}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,416,921

2025-08-28T14:35:21

5.607882

1,756,587,439

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38560

38560

Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39218/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768 - Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 1.10% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days. Original fine print: > “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations. Original background: > Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention. > > Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_$2023%E2%80%93present$). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping.  > > In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal) > > In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled.  `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38768,"question_id":38065,"last_cp":0.011}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768. If the community prediction on 2025-08-27 12:08:16 is higher than 1.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,266,934

2025-08-26T20:55:34

3.871921

1,756,587,452

null

1.0

null

true

yes

1.0

null

metaculus_38548

38548

Will FSV Mainz 05 secure a victory in their match on August 24, 2025?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39206/will-fsv-mainz-05-secure-a-victory-in-their-match-on-august-24-2025/

This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain. `{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"e65edc13-62e9-4c3a-b5eb-43cf9e4c741d"}}`

This question concerns the result of the BUN fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 24, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should FSV Mainz 05 be ahead at this point, the answer will be 'Yes'. If they are not leading, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the contest is called off and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. Only the initial scheduled match and its regulation time outcome are relevant for this question.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,151,807

2025-08-25T12:56:47

2.539433

1,756,587,473

null

0.0

null

true

annulled

0.0

null

metaculus_38533

38533

Will CI's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-27?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39191/cis-close-price-rises/

The Cigna Group is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:19) is 296.86. You can find more information about The Cigna Group at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CI The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. Its Evernorth Health Services segment provides a range of coordinated and point solution health services, including pharmacy benefits, home delivery pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, distribution, and care delivery and management solutions to health plans, employers, government organizations, and health care providers. The company's Cigna Healthcare segment offers medical, pharmacy, behavioral health, dental, and other products and services for insured and self-insured customers; Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, and Medicare Part D plans for seniors, as well as individual health insurance plans; and health care coverage in its international markets, as well as health care benefits for mobile individuals and employees of multinational organizations. In addition, it offers permanent insurance contracts sold to corporations to provide coverage on the lives of certain employees for financing employer-paid future benefit obligations and stop loss insurance. The company distributes its products and services through insurance brokers and consultants; directly to employers, unions and other groups, or individuals; and private and public exchanges. The company was formerly known as Cigna Corporation and changed its name to The Cigna Group in February 2023. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"CI"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CI. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,294,281

2025-08-27T04:31:21

4.188438

1,756,587,455

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38525

38525

Will LHX's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-26?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39183/lhxs-close-price-rises/

L3Harris Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LHX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:06) is 270.55. You can find more information about L3Harris Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. It operates through Space & Airborne Systems (SAS), Integrated Mission Systems (IMS), Communication Systems (CS), and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) segments. The SAS segment provides satellite space payloads, sensors, and full-mission solutions; classified intelligence and cyber; airborne combat systems; and mission networks for air traffic management operations. The IMS segment offers intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems; passive sensing and targeting; electronic attack platforms; autonomy; power and communications; networks; and sensors. The CS segment provides tactical radios, software, waveforms, satellite terminals, and end-to-end battlefield systems for the U.S. Department of Defense, international, federal, and state agency customers; broadband communications; integrated vision solutions, including helmet-mounted integrated night vision goggles with image intensifier tubes and weapon-mounted sights, aiming lasers, and range finders; and public safety radios, and system applications and equipment. The AR segment offers propulsion technologies and armament systems for strategic defense, missile defense, hypersonic, and tactical systems; and space propulsion and power systems for national security space and exploration missions. The company was formerly known as Harris Corporation and changed its name to L3Harris Technologies, Inc. in June 2019. L3Harris Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is based in Melbourne, Florida. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"LHX"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LHX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,169,652

2025-08-25T17:54:12

2.745972

1,756,587,458

null

1.0

null

true

yes

1.0

null

metaculus_38520

38520

Will STLD's market close price on 2025-08-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-25?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39178/stlds-close-price-rises/

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STLD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:28:58) is 126.42. You can find more information about Steel Dynamics, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products. This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, owners, brokers, and governmental entities. The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana. `{"format":"close_price_rises","info":{"ticker":"STLD"}}`

This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STLD. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.

[]

1,755,932,400

2025-08-23T00:00:00

1,756,113,859

2025-08-25T02:24:19

2.10022

1,756,587,460

null

0.0

null

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38581

38581

What will be the value of "the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Billions of US Dollars

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39239/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-rrpontsyd-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series RRPONTSYD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations. The title of the series is "Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-15 and has a value of 33.757. The units of the series are "Billions of US Dollars". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RRP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations. > > Temporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market. > > A reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies. > For more information, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"RRPONTSYD"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series RRPONTSYD once the data is published.

[]

1,756,191,600

2025-08-26T00:00:00

1,756,353,080

2025-08-27T20:51:20

1.868981

1,756,587,466

null

77.898

true

77.898

null

76.5762

378.56915

null

true

null

metaculus_38580

38580

What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets" on 2025-08-29?

numeric

Percent

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39238/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlemcbpioas-be/

The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLEMCBPIOAS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets. The title of the series is "ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Option-Adjusted Spread". The last data point on the graph is from 2025-08-14 and has a value of 1.51. The units of the series are "Percent". The update frequency of the series is "Daily". The seasonal adjustment of the series is "Not Seasonally Adjusted". An interactive graph for the series can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPIOAS. Below are the notes attached to the series: > This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPITRIV?cid=32413), which tracks the performance of US dollar (USD) and Euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued within the major domestic and Eurobond markets. To qualify for inclusion in the index, the issuer of debt must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX G10 (US, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Sweden, UK, Switzerland, Norway, and Euro Currency Members), all Western European countries, and territories of the US and Western European countries. Each security must also be denominated in USD or Euro with a time to maturity greater than 1 year and have a fixed coupon. For inclusion in the index, investment grade rated bonds of qualifying issuers must have at least 250 million (Euro or USD) in outstanding face value, and below investment grade rated bonds must have at least 100 million (Euro or USD) in outstanding face value. The index includes corporate and quasi-government debt of qualifying countries, but excludes sovereign and supranational debt. Other types of securities acceptable for inclusion in this index are: original issue zero coupon bonds, "global" securities (debt issued in the US domestic bond markets as well the Eurobond Market simultaneously), 144a securities, pay-in-kind securities (includes toggle notes), callable perpetual securities (qualify if they are at least one year from the first call date), fixed-to-floating rate securities (qualify if the securities are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security). Defaulted securities are excluded from the Index. > ICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as: > Index constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of US mortgage pass-throughs and US structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for US mortgage pass-through and US structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until > the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index. > > The ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments. > > Certain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE DATA”) and used under license. ICE® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA® IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (“BOFA”) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA’S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. > > Copyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices. > > The end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (“Top Level Data”) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data. > Neither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages. > The Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. > You shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data. > ICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith. > You shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose. > Access to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason. > ICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use. > The FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers. `{"format":"fred_value_at_time","info":{"series_id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS"}}`

Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLEMCBPIOAS once the data is published.

[]

1,756,191,600

2025-08-26T00:00:00

1,756,342,194

2025-08-27T17:49:54

1.742986

1,757,153,528

null

1.55

null

true

1.55

null

1.589

2.061

null

true

null

metaculus_38573

38573

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39231/will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850 - Original question title: Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025. Original fine print: > No fine print provided Original background: > In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water).  > > After privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion. > > After Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities. > > In June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation. `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38850,"question_id":38163,"last_cp":0.2}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,756,191,600

2025-08-26T00:00:00

1,756,424,448

2025-08-28T16:40:48

2.695

1,756,587,431

null

0.0

true

no

0.0

null

metaculus_38567

38567

Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'?

binary

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39225/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026/

Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822 - Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026? - The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 50.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 "Statement of Organization" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party). Original fine print: > If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**. > > If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter.  > > Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party. Original background: > Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america) > > > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law. > > > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money. > > > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday. > > ‎ > > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of "America Party" of "DOGE" or "X" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as "wentsnowboarding \[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses. > > A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false.  `{"format":"metaculus_binary_cp_rises","info":{"post_id":38822,"question_id":38143,"last_cp":0.5}}`

This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.

[]

1,756,191,600

2025-08-26T00:00:00

1,756,416,921

2025-08-28T14:35:21

2.607882

1,756,587,439

null

0.0

true

no

0.0

null

Datasets:

chestnutforty
/

forecast-snapshots-metaculus-2cc65706d0

Forecast Snapshot Dataset

Dataset Description

Format

Question Types

Usage

Configuration