Daily Papers

In this paper, we propose LEURN: a neural network architecture that learns univariate decision rules. LEURN is a white-box algorithm that results into univariate trees and makes explainable decisions in every stage. In each layer, LEURN finds a set of univariate rules based on an embedding of the previously checked rules and their corresponding responses. Both rule finding and final decision mechanisms are weighted linear combinations of these embeddings, hence contribution of all rules are clearly formulated and explainable. LEURN can select features, extract feature importance, provide semantic similarity between a pair of samples, be used in a generative manner and can give a confidence score. Thanks to a smoothness parameter, LEURN can also controllably behave like decision trees or vanilla neural networks. Besides these advantages, LEURN achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods across 30 tabular datasets for classification and regression problems.

We introduce a new approach to nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction in cases where both the predictor and the response are distributional data, modeled as members of a metric space. Our key step is to build universal kernels (cc-universal) on the metric spaces, which results in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for the predictor and response that are rich enough to characterize the conditional independence that determines sufficient dimension reduction. For univariate distributions, we construct the universal kernel using the Wasserstein distance, while for multivariate distributions, we resort to the sliced Wasserstein distance. The sliced Wasserstein distance ensures that the metric space possesses similar topological properties to the Wasserstein space while also offering significant computation benefits. Numerical results based on synthetic data show that our method outperforms possible competing methods. The method is also applied to several data sets, including fertility and mortality data and Calgary temperature data.

Treemaps are a popular technique to visualize hierarchical data. The input is a weighted tree tree where the weight of each node is the sum of the weights of its children. A treemap for tree is a hierarchical partition of a rectangle into simply connected regions, usually rectangles. Each region represents a node of tree and its area is proportional to the weight of the corresponding node. An important quality criterion for treemaps is the aspect ratio of its regions. One cannot bound the aspect ratio if the regions are restricted to be rectangles. In contrast, polygonal partitions, that use convex polygons, have bounded aspect ratio. We are the first to obtain convex partitions with optimal aspect ratio O(depth(tree)). However, depth(tree) still depends on the input tree. Hence we introduce a new type of treemaps, namely orthoconvex treemaps, where regions representing leaves are rectangles, L-, and S-shapes, and regions representing internal nodes are orthoconvex polygons. We prove that any input tree, irrespective of the weights of the nodes and the depth of the tree, admits an orthoconvex treemap of constant aspect ratio. We also obtain several specialized results for single-level treemaps, that is, treemaps where the input tree has depth~1.

Let T be a rooted and weighted tree, where the weight of any node is equal to the sum of the weights of its children. The popular Treemap algorithm visualizes such a tree as a hierarchical partition of a square into rectangles, where the area of the rectangle corresponding to any node in T is equal to the weight of that node. The aspect ratio of the rectangles in such a rectangular partition necessarily depends on the weights and can become arbitrarily high. We introduce a new hierarchical partition scheme, called a polygonal partition, which uses convex polygons rather than just rectangles. We present two methods for constructing polygonal partitions, both having guarantees on the worst-case aspect ratio of the constructed polygons; in particular, both methods guarantee a bound on the aspect ratio that is independent of the weights of the nodes. We also consider rectangular partitions with slack, where the areas of the rectangles may differ slightly from the weights of the corresponding nodes. We show that this makes it possible to obtain partitions with constant aspect ratio. This result generalizes to hyper-rectangular partitions in R^d. We use these partitions with slack for embedding ultrametrics into d-dimensional Euclidean space: we give a rm polylog(Delta)-approximation algorithm for embedding n-point ultrametrics into R^d with minimum distortion, where Delta denotes the spread of the metric, i.e., the ratio between the largest and the smallest distance between two points. The previously best-known approximation ratio for this problem was polynomial in n. This is the first algorithm for embedding a non-trivial family of weighted-graph metrics into a space of constant dimension that achieves polylogarithmic approximation ratio.

The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

Random forests and, more generally, (decision\nobreakdash-)tree ensembles are widely used methods for classification and regression. Recent algorithmic advances allow to compute decision trees that are optimal for various measures such as their size or depth. We are not aware of such research for tree ensembles and aim to contribute to this area. Mainly, we provide two novel algorithms and corresponding lower bounds. First, we are able to carry over and substantially improve on tractability results for decision trees, obtaining a (6delta D S)^S cdot poly-time algorithm, where S is the number of cuts in the tree ensemble, D the largest domain size, and delta is the largest number of features in which two examples differ. To achieve this, we introduce the witness-tree technique which also seems promising for practice. Second, we show that dynamic programming, which has been successful for decision trees, may also be viable for tree ensembles, providing an ell^n cdot poly-time algorithm, where ell is the number of trees and n the number of examples. Finally, we compare the number of cuts necessary to classify training data sets for decision trees and tree ensembles, showing that ensembles may need exponentially fewer cuts for increasing number of trees.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

We present PrediTree, the first comprehensive open-source dataset designed for training and evaluating tree height prediction models at sub-meter resolution. This dataset combines very high-resolution (0.5m) LiDAR-derived canopy height maps, spatially aligned with multi-temporal and multi-spectral imagery, across diverse forest ecosystems in France, totaling 3,141,568 images. PrediTree addresses a critical gap in forest monitoring capabilities by enabling the training of deep learning methods that can predict tree growth based on multiple past observations. %Initially focused on French forests, PrediTree is designed as an expanding resource with ongoing efforts to incorporate data from other countries. To make use of this PrediTree dataset, we propose an encoder-decoder framework that requires the multi-temporal multi-spectral imagery and the relative time differences in years between the canopy height map timestamp (target) and each image acquisition date for which this framework predicts the canopy height. The conducted experiments demonstrate that a U-Net architecture trained on the PrediTree dataset provides the highest masked mean squared error of 11.78%, outperforming the next-best architecture, ResNet-50, by around 12%, and cutting the error of the same experiments but on fewer bands (red, green, blue only), by around 30%. This dataset is publicly available on URL{HuggingFace}, and both processing and training codebases are available on URL{GitHub}.

The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments. To address this, we present an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS) to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. The system achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a wide range of benchmarks. In bioinformatics, it discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, it generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. Our method also produced state-of-the-art software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, time series forecasting and numerical solution of integrals. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, the system represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Large language models (LLMs) now achieve near-human performance on standard math word problem benchmarks (e.g., GSM8K), yet their true reasoning ability remains disputed. A key concern is that models often produce confident, yet unfounded, answers to unanswerable problems. We introduce TreeCut, a synthetic dataset that systematically generates infinite unanswerable math word problems and their answerable counterparts, by representing each question as a tree and removing chosen necessary conditions. Experiments show TreeCut effectively induce hallucinations in large language models, including GPT-4o and o3-mini, with rates of 64% and 44% in their respective worst-case scenarios under zero-shot setting. Further analysis highlights that deeper or more complex trees, composite item names, and removing necessary condition near the middle of a path all increase the likelihood of hallucinations, underscoring the persistent challenges LLMs face in identifying unanswerable math problems. The dataset generation code and sample data are available at https://github.com/j-bagel/treecut-math.

We study the set of networks, which consist of sources, sinks and neutral points, bijective to the permutations. The set of directed edges, which characterizes a network, is constructed from a polyomino or a Rothe diagram of a permutation through a Dyck tiling on a ribbon. We introduce a new combinatorial object similar to a tree-like tableau, which we call a forest. A forest is shown to give a permutation, and be bijective to a network corresponding to the inverse of the permutation. We show that the poset of networks is a finite graded lattice and admits an EL-labeling. By use of this EL-labeling, we show the lattice is supersolvable and compute the M\"obius function of an interval of the poset.

Hyperbolic embeddings offer excellent quality with few dimensions when embedding hierarchical data structures like synonym or type hierarchies. Given a tree, we give a combinatorial construction that embeds the tree in hyperbolic space with arbitrarily low distortion without using optimization. On WordNet, our combinatorial embedding obtains a mean-average-precision of 0.989 with only two dimensions, while Nickel et al.'s recent construction obtains 0.87 using 200 dimensions. We provide upper and lower bounds that allow us to characterize the precision-dimensionality tradeoff inherent in any hyperbolic embedding. To embed general metric spaces, we propose a hyperbolic generalization of multidimensional scaling (h-MDS). We show how to perform exact recovery of hyperbolic points from distances, provide a perturbation analysis, and give a recovery result that allows us to reduce dimensionality. The h-MDS approach offers consistently low distortion even with few dimensions across several datasets. Finally, we extract lessons from the algorithms and theory above to design a PyTorch-based implementation that can handle incomplete information and is scalable.

Motivation The genotype assignment problem consists of predicting, from the genotype of an individual, which of a known set of populations it originated from. The problem arises in a variety of contexts, including wildlife forensics, invasive species detection and biodiversity monitoring. Existing approaches perform well under ideal conditions but are sensitive to a variety of common violations of the assumptions they rely on. Results In this article, we introduce Mycorrhiza, a machine learning approach for the genotype assignment problem. Our algorithm makes use of phylogenetic networks to engineer features that encode the evolutionary relationships among samples. Those features are then used as input to a Random Forests classifier. The classification accuracy was assessed on multiple published empirical SNP, microsatellite or consensus sequence datasets with wide ranges of size, geographical distribution and population structure and on simulated datasets. It compared favorably against widely used assessment tests or mixture analysis methods such as STRUCTURE and Admixture, and against another machine-learning based approach using principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. Mycorrhiza yields particularly significant gains on datasets with a large average fixation index (FST) or deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Moreover, the phylogenetic network approach estimates mixture proportions with good accuracy.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

A spanning tree T of graph G is a rho-approximate universal Steiner tree (UST) for root vertex r if, for any subset of vertices S containing r, the cost of the minimal subgraph of T connecting S is within a rho factor of the minimum cost tree connecting S in G. Busch et al. (FOCS 2012) showed that every graph admits 2^{O(log n)}-approximate USTs by showing that USTs are equivalent to strong sparse partition hierarchies (up to poly-logs). Further, they posed poly-logarithmic USTs and strong sparse partition hierarchies as open questions. We settle these open questions by giving polynomial-time algorithms for computing both O(log ^ 7 n)-approximate USTs and poly-logarithmic strong sparse partition hierarchies. For graphs with constant doubling dimension or constant pathwidth we improve this to O(log n)-approximate USTs and O(1) strong sparse partition hierarchies. Our doubling dimension result is tight up to second order terms. We reduce the existence of these objects to the previously studied cluster aggregation problem and what we call dangling nets.

Prototype-based methods use interpretable representations to address the black-box nature of deep learning models, in contrast to post-hoc explanation methods that only approximate such models. We propose the Neural Prototype Tree (ProtoTree), an intrinsically interpretable deep learning method for fine-grained image recognition. ProtoTree combines prototype learning with decision trees, and thus results in a globally interpretable model by design. Additionally, ProtoTree can locally explain a single prediction by outlining a decision path through the tree. Each node in our binary tree contains a trainable prototypical part. The presence or absence of this learned prototype in an image determines the routing through a node. Decision making is therefore similar to human reasoning: Does the bird have a red throat? And an elongated beak? Then it's a hummingbird! We tune the accuracy-interpretability trade-off using ensemble methods, pruning and binarizing. We apply pruning without sacrificing accuracy, resulting in a small tree with only 8 learned prototypes along a path to classify a bird from 200 species. An ensemble of 5 ProtoTrees achieves competitive accuracy on the CUB-200- 2011 and Stanford Cars data sets. Code is available at https://github.com/M-Nauta/ProtoTree

A heuristic extending the Squarified Treemap technique for the representation of hierarchical information as treemaps is presented. The original technique gives high quality treemap views, since items are laid out with rectangles that approximate squares, allowing easy comparison and selection operations. New key steps, with a low computational impact, have been introduced to yield treemaps with even better aspect ratios and higher homogeneity among items.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

We introduce Tree D-fusion, featuring the first collection of 600,000 environmentally aware, 3D simulation-ready tree models generated through Diffusion priors. Each reconstructed 3D tree model corresponds to an image from Google's Auto Arborist Dataset, comprising street view images and associated genus labels of trees across North America. Our method distills the scores of two tree-adapted diffusion models by utilizing text prompts to specify a tree genus, thus facilitating shape reconstruction. This process involves reconstructing a 3D tree envelope filled with point markers, which are subsequently utilized to estimate the tree's branching structure using the space colonization algorithm conditioned on a specified genus.

With recent dramatic increases in AI system capabilities, there has been growing interest in utilizing machine learning for reasoning-heavy, quantitative tasks, particularly mathematics. While there are many resources capturing mathematics at the high-school, undergraduate, and graduate level, there are far fewer resources available that align with the level of difficulty and open endedness encountered by professional mathematicians working on open problems. To address this, we introduce a new collection of datasets, the Algebraic Combinatorics Dataset Repository (ACD Repo), representing either foundational results or open problems in algebraic combinatorics, a subfield of mathematics that studies discrete structures arising from abstract algebra. Further differentiating our dataset collection is the fact that it aims at the conjecturing process. Each dataset includes an open-ended research-level question and a large collection of examples (up to 10M in some cases) from which conjectures should be generated. We describe all nine datasets, the different ways machine learning models can be applied to them (e.g., training with narrow models followed by interpretability analysis or program synthesis with LLMs), and discuss some of the challenges involved in designing datasets like these.

Instance segmentation, an important image processing operation for automation in agriculture, is used to precisely delineate individual objects of interest within images, which provides foundational information for various automated or robotic tasks such as selective harvesting and precision pruning. This study compares the one-stage YOLOv8 and the two-stage Mask R-CNN machine learning models for instance segmentation under varying orchard conditions across two datasets. Dataset 1, collected in dormant season, includes images of dormant apple trees, which were used to train multi-object segmentation models delineating tree branches and trunks. Dataset 2, collected in the early growing season, includes images of apple tree canopies with green foliage and immature (green) apples (also called fruitlet), which were used to train single-object segmentation models delineating only immature green apples. The results showed that YOLOv8 performed better than Mask R-CNN, achieving good precision and near-perfect recall across both datasets at a confidence threshold of 0.5. Specifically, for Dataset 1, YOLOv8 achieved a precision of 0.90 and a recall of 0.95 for all classes. In comparison, Mask R-CNN demonstrated a precision of 0.81 and a recall of 0.81 for the same dataset. With Dataset 2, YOLOv8 achieved a precision of 0.93 and a recall of 0.97. Mask R-CNN, in this single-class scenario, achieved a precision of 0.85 and a recall of 0.88. Additionally, the inference times for YOLOv8 were 10.9 ms for multi-class segmentation (Dataset 1) and 7.8 ms for single-class segmentation (Dataset 2), compared to 15.6 ms and 12.8 ms achieved by Mask R-CNN's, respectively.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

Automatic tree density estimation and counting using single aerial and satellite images is a challenging task in photogrammetry and remote sensing, yet has an important role in forest management. In this paper, we propose the first semisupervised transformer-based framework for tree counting which reduces the expensive tree annotations for remote sensing images. Our method, termed as TreeFormer, first develops a pyramid tree representation module based on transformer blocks to extract multi-scale features during the encoding stage. Contextual attention-based feature fusion and tree density regressor modules are further designed to utilize the robust features from the encoder to estimate tree density maps in the decoder. Moreover, we propose a pyramid learning strategy that includes local tree density consistency and local tree count ranking losses to utilize unlabeled images into the training process. Finally, the tree counter token is introduced to regulate the network by computing the global tree counts for both labeled and unlabeled images. Our model was evaluated on two benchmark tree counting datasets, Jiangsu, and Yosemite, as well as a new dataset, KCL-London, created by ourselves. Our TreeFormer outperforms the state of the art semi-supervised methods under the same setting and exceeds the fully-supervised methods using the same number of labeled images. The codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/HAAClassic/TreeFormer.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure progress, it is essential to be able to study and compare such methods empirically in a comprehensive and reliable manner. To achieve this, we propose TFB, an automated benchmark for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods. TFB advances the state-of-the-art by addressing shortcomings related to datasets, comparison methods, and evaluation pipelines: 1) insufficient coverage of data domains, 2) stereotype bias against traditional methods, and 3) inconsistent and inflexible pipelines. To achieve better domain coverage, we include datasets from 10 different domains: traffic, electricity, energy, the environment, nature, economic, stock markets, banking, health, and the web. We also provide a time series characterization to ensure that the selected datasets are comprehensive. To remove biases against some methods, we include a diverse range of methods, including statistical learning, machine learning, and deep learning methods, and we also support a variety of evaluation strategies and metrics to ensure a more comprehensive evaluations of different methods. To support the integration of different methods into the benchmark and enable fair comparisons, TFB features a flexible and scalable pipeline that eliminates biases. Next, we employ TFB to perform a thorough evaluation of 21 Univariate Time Series Forecasting (UTSF) methods on 8,068 univariate time series and 14 Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) methods on 25 datasets. The benchmark code and data are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TFB. We have also launched an online time series leaderboard: https://decisionintelligence.github.io/OpenTS/OpenTS-Bench/.

We study the problem of learning hierarchical polynomials over the standard Gaussian distribution with three-layer neural networks. We specifically consider target functions of the form h = g circ p where p : R^d rightarrow R is a degree k polynomial and g: R rightarrow R is a degree q polynomial. This function class generalizes the single-index model, which corresponds to k=1, and is a natural class of functions possessing an underlying hierarchical structure. Our main result shows that for a large subclass of degree k polynomials p, a three-layer neural network trained via layerwise gradient descent on the square loss learns the target h up to vanishing test error in mathcal{O}(d^k) samples and polynomial time. This is a strict improvement over kernel methods, which require widetilde Theta(d^{kq}) samples, as well as existing guarantees for two-layer networks, which require the target function to be low-rank. Our result also generalizes prior works on three-layer neural networks, which were restricted to the case of p being a quadratic. When p is indeed a quadratic, we achieve the information-theoretically optimal sample complexity mathcal{O}(d^2), which is an improvement over prior work~nichani2023provable requiring a sample size of widetildeTheta(d^4). Our proof proceeds by showing that during the initial stage of training the network performs feature learning to recover the feature p with mathcal{O}(d^k) samples. This work demonstrates the ability of three-layer neural networks to learn complex features and as a result, learn a broad class of hierarchical functions.

Decision trees are a crucial class of models offering robust predictive performance and inherent interpretability across various domains, including healthcare, finance, and logistics. However, current tree induction methods often face limitations such as suboptimal solutions from greedy methods or prohibitive computational costs and limited applicability of exact optimization approaches. To address these challenges, we propose an evolutionary optimization method for decision tree induction based on genetic programming (GP). Our key innovation is the integration of semantic priors and domain-specific knowledge about the search space into the optimization algorithm. To this end, we introduce LLEGO, a framework that incorporates semantic priors into genetic search operators through the use of Large Language Models (LLMs), thereby enhancing search efficiency and targeting regions of the search space that yield decision trees with superior generalization performance. This is operationalized through novel genetic operators that work with structured natural language prompts, effectively utilizing LLMs as conditional generative models and sources of semantic knowledge. Specifically, we introduce fitness-guided crossover to exploit high-performing regions, and diversity-guided mutation for efficient global exploration of the search space. These operators are controlled by corresponding hyperparameters that enable a more nuanced balance between exploration and exploitation across the search space. Empirically, we demonstrate across various benchmarks that LLEGO evolves superior-performing trees compared to existing tree induction methods, and exhibits significantly more efficient search performance compared to conventional GP approaches.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.

As researchers and practitioners apply Machine Learning to increasingly more software engineering problems, the approaches they use become more sophisticated. A lot of modern approaches utilize internal code structure in the form of an abstract syntax tree (AST) or its extensions: path-based representation, complex graph combining AST with additional edges. Even though the process of extracting ASTs from code can be done with different parsers, the impact of choosing a parser on the final model quality remains unstudied. Moreover, researchers often omit the exact details of extracting particular code representations. In this work, we evaluate two models, namely Code2Seq and TreeLSTM, in the method name prediction task backed by eight different parsers for the Java language. To unify the process of data preparation with different parsers, we develop SuperParser, a multi-language parser-agnostic library based on PathMiner. SuperParser facilitates the end-to-end creation of datasets suitable for training and evaluation of ML models that work with structural information from source code. Our results demonstrate that trees built by different parsers vary in their structure and content. We then analyze how this diversity affects the models' quality and show that the quality gap between the most and least suitable parsers for both models turns out to be significant. Finally, we discuss other features of the parsers that researchers and practitioners should take into account when selecting a parser along with the impact on the models' quality. The code of SuperParser is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6366591. We also publish Java-norm, the dataset we use to evaluate the models: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6366599.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Unlabeled data is a key component of modern machine learning. In general, the role of unlabeled data is to impose a form of smoothness, usually from the similarity information encoded in a base kernel, such as the epsilon-neighbor kernel or the adjacency matrix of a graph. This work revisits the classical idea of spectrally transformed kernel regression (STKR), and provides a new class of general and scalable STKR estimators able to leverage unlabeled data. Intuitively, via spectral transformation, STKR exploits the data distribution for which unlabeled data can provide additional information. First, we show that STKR is a principled and general approach, by characterizing a universal type of "target smoothness", and proving that any sufficiently smooth function can be learned by STKR. Second, we provide scalable STKR implementations for the inductive setting and a general transformation function, while prior work is mostly limited to the transductive setting. Third, we derive statistical guarantees for two scenarios: STKR with a known polynomial transformation, and STKR with kernel PCA when the transformation is unknown. Overall, we believe that this work helps deepen our understanding of how to work with unlabeled data, and its generality makes it easier to inspire new methods.

We propose a novel random walk-based algorithm for unbiased estimation of arbitrary functions of a weighted adjacency matrix, coined universal graph random features (u-GRFs). This includes many of the most popular examples of kernels defined on the nodes of a graph. Our algorithm enjoys subquadratic time complexity with respect to the number of nodes, overcoming the notoriously prohibitive cubic scaling of exact graph kernel evaluation. It can also be trivially distributed across machines, permitting learning on much larger networks. At the heart of the algorithm is a modulation function which upweights or downweights the contribution from different random walks depending on their lengths. We show that by parameterising it with a neural network we can obtain u-GRFs that give higher-quality kernel estimates or perform efficient, scalable kernel learning. We provide robust theoretical analysis and support our findings with experiments including pointwise estimation of fixed graph kernels, solving non-homogeneous graph ordinary differential equations, node clustering and kernel regression on triangular meshes.

Categorical variables often appear in datasets for classification and regression tasks, and they need to be encoded into numerical values before training. Since many encoders have been developed and can significantly impact performance, choosing the appropriate encoder for a task becomes a time-consuming yet important practical issue. This study broadly classifies machine learning models into three categories: 1) ATI models that implicitly perform affine transformations on inputs, such as multi-layer perceptron neural network; 2) Tree-based models that are based on decision trees, such as random forest; and 3) the rest, such as kNN. Theoretically, we prove that the one-hot encoder is the best choice for ATI models in the sense that it can mimic any other encoders by learning suitable weights from the data. We also explain why the target encoder and its variants are the most suitable encoders for tree-based models. This study conducted comprehensive computational experiments to evaluate 14 encoders, including one-hot and target encoders, along with eight common machine-learning models on 28 datasets. The computational results agree with our theoretical analysis. The findings in this study shed light on how to select the suitable encoder for data scientists in fields such as fraud detection, disease diagnosis, etc.

In orchard automation, dense foliage during the canopy season severely occludes tree structures, minimizing visibility to various canopy parts such as trunks and branches, which limits the ability of a machine vision system. However, canopy structure is more open and visible during the dormant season when trees are defoliated. In this work, we present an information fusion framework that integrates multi-seasonal structural data to support robotic and automated crop load management during the entire growing season. The framework combines high-resolution RGB-D imagery from both dormant and canopy periods using YOLOv9-Seg for instance segmentation, Kinect Fusion for 3D reconstruction, and Fast Generalized Iterative Closest Point (Fast GICP) for model alignment. Segmentation outputs from YOLOv9-Seg were used to extract depth-informed masks, which enabled accurate 3D point cloud reconstruction via Kinect Fusion; these reconstructed models from each season were subsequently aligned using Fast GICP to achieve spatially coherent multi-season fusion. The YOLOv9-Seg model, trained on manually annotated images, achieved a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0047 and segmentation mAP@50 scores up to 0.78 for trunks in dormant season dataset. Kinect Fusion enabled accurate reconstruction of tree geometry, validated with field measurements resulting in root mean square errors (RMSE) of 5.23 mm for trunk diameter, 4.50 mm for branch diameter, and 13.72 mm for branch spacing. Fast GICP achieved precise cross-seasonal registration with a minimum fitness score of 0.00197, allowing integrated, comprehensive tree structure modeling despite heavy occlusions during the growing season. This fused structural representation enables robotic systems to access otherwise obscured architectural information, improving the precision of pruning, thinning, and other automated orchard operations.

An n-vertex tree T is said to be graceful if there exists a bijective labelling φ:V(T)to {1,ldots,n} such that the edge-differences {|φ(x)-φ(y)| : xyin E(T)} are pairwise distinct. The longstanding graceful tree conjecture, posed by Rósa in the 1960s, asserts that every tree is graceful. The gracesize of an n-vertex tree T, denoted gs(T), is the maximum possible number of distinct edge-differences over all bijective labellings φ:V(T)to {1,ldots,n}. The graceful tree conjecture is therefore equivalent to the statement that gs(T)=n-1 for all n-vertex trees. We prove an asymptotic version of this conjecture by showing that for every varepsilon>0, there exists n_0 such that every tree on n>n_0 vertices satisfies gs(T)geqslant (1-varepsilon)n. In other words, every sufficiently large tree admits an almost graceful labelling.

Accurate forecasting of electrical demand is essential for maintaining a stable and reliable power grid, optimizing the allocation of energy resources, and promoting efficient energy consumption practices. This study investigates the effectiveness of five hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms -- Random Search, Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA--ES), Bayesian Optimization, Partial Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Nevergrad Optimizer (NGOpt) across univariate and multivariate Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) tasks. Using the Panama Electricity dataset (n=48,049), we evaluate HPO algorithms' performances on a surrogate forecasting algorithm, XGBoost, in terms of accuracy (i.e., MAPE, R^2) and runtime. Performance plots visualize these metrics across varying sample sizes from 1,000 to 20,000, and Kruskal--Wallis tests assess the statistical significance of the performance differences. Results reveal significant runtime advantages for HPO algorithms over Random Search. In univariate models, Bayesian optimization exhibited the lowest accuracy among the tested methods. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing XGBoost in the STLF context and identifies areas for future research.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Symbolic regression plays a crucial role in modern scientific research thanks to its capability of discovering concise and interpretable mathematical expressions from data. A grand challenge lies in the arduous search for parsimonious and generalizable mathematical formulas, in an infinite search space, while intending to fit the training data. Existing algorithms have faced a critical bottleneck of accuracy and efficiency over a decade when handling problems of complexity, which essentially hinders the pace of applying symbolic regression for scientific exploration across interdisciplinary domains. To this end, we introduce a parallelized tree search (PTS) model to efficiently distill generic mathematical expressions from limited data. Through a series of extensive experiments, we demonstrate the superior accuracy and efficiency of PTS for equation discovery, which greatly outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline models on over 80 synthetic and experimental datasets (e.g., lifting its performance by up to 99% accuracy improvement and one-order of magnitude speed up). PTS represents a key advance in accurate and efficient data-driven discovery of symbolic, interpretable models (e.g., underlying physical laws) and marks a pivotal transition towards scalable symbolic learning.

A technique for improving the prediction accuracy of decision trees is proposed. It consists in evaluating the tree's branches in parallel over multiple paths. The technique enables predictions that are more aligned with the ones generated by the nearest neighborhood variant of the deodata algorithms. The technique also enables the hybridization of the decision tree algorithm with the nearest neighborhood variant.

As the global food security landscape continues to evolve, the need for accurate and reliable crop disease diagnosis has never been more pressing. To address global food security concerns, we extend the widely used PlantVillage dataset with additional apple leaf disease classes, enhancing diversity and complexity. Experimental evaluations on both original and extended datasets reveal that existing models struggle with the new additions, highlighting the need for more robust and generalizable computer vision models. Test F1 scores of 99.63% and 97.87% were obtained on the original and extended datasets, respectively. Our study provides a more challenging and diverse benchmark, paving the way for the development of accurate and reliable models for identifying apple leaf diseases under varying imaging conditions. The expanded dataset is available at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/akinyemijoseph/apple-leaf-disease-dataset-6-classes-v2 enabling future research to build upon our findings.

Linear Mode Connectivity (LMC) refers to the phenomenon that performance remains consistent for linearly interpolated models in the parameter space. For independently optimized model pairs from different random initializations, achieving LMC is considered crucial for validating the stable success of the non-convex optimization in modern machine learning models and for facilitating practical parameter-based operations such as model merging. While LMC has been achieved for neural networks by considering the permutation invariance of neurons in each hidden layer, its attainment for other models remains an open question. In this paper, we first achieve LMC for soft tree ensembles, which are tree-based differentiable models extensively used in practice. We show the necessity of incorporating two invariances: subtree flip invariance and splitting order invariance, which do not exist in neural networks but are inherent to tree architectures, in addition to permutation invariance of trees. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is even possible to exclude such additional invariances while keeping LMC by designing decision list-based tree architectures, where such invariances do not exist by definition. Our findings indicate the significance of accounting for architecture-specific invariances in achieving LMC.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

The paper ``Tropical Geometry of Deep Neural Networks'' by L. Zhang et al. introduces an equivalence between integer-valued neural networks (IVNN) with ReLU_{t} and tropical rational functions, which come with a map to polytopes. Here, IVNN refers to a network with integer weights but real biases, and ReLU_{t} is defined as ReLU_{t}(x)=max(x,t) for tinRcup{-infty}. For every poset with n points, there exists a corresponding order polytope, i.e., a convex polytope in the unit cube [0,1]^n whose coordinates obey the inequalities of the poset. We study neural networks whose associated polytope is an order polytope. We then explain how posets with four points induce neural networks that can be interpreted as 2times 2 convolutional filters. These poset filters can be added to any neural network, not only IVNN. Similarly to maxout, poset pooling filters update the weights of the neural network during backpropagation with more precision than average pooling, max pooling, or mixed pooling, without the need to train extra parameters. We report experiments that support our statements. We also define the structure of algebra over the operad of posets on poset neural networks and tropical polynomials. This formalism allows us to study the composition of poset neural network arquitectures and the effect on their corresponding Newton polytopes, via the introduction of the generalization of two operations on polytopes: the Minkowski sum and the convex envelope.

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied to a popular decoder-only time series model (TimesFM). The resulting multiresolution decoder-only model is trained on over 300B unique data points, with more than half coming from the observability domain. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that the resulting model achieves superior performance on observability datasets while retaining very similar performance on a standard general-purpose forecasting benchmark (GIFT-Eval), and suggest that the multiresolution structure enables the model to make more accurate predictions on long context input.

Detailed forest inventories are critical for sustainable and flexible management of forest resources, to conserve various ecosystem services. Modern airborne laser scanners deliver high-density point clouds with great potential for fine-scale forest inventory and analysis, but automatically partitioning those point clouds into meaningful entities like individual trees or tree components remains a challenge. The present study aims to fill this gap and introduces a deep learning framework, termed ForAINet, that is able to perform such a segmentation across diverse forest types and geographic regions. From the segmented data, we then derive relevant biophysical parameters of individual trees as well as stands. The system has been tested on FOR-Instance, a dataset of point clouds that have been acquired in five different countries using surveying drones. The segmentation back-end achieves over 85% F-score for individual trees, respectively over 73% mean IoU across five semantic categories: ground, low vegetation, stems, live branches and dead branches. Building on the segmentation results our pipeline then densely calculates biophysical features of each individual tree (height, crown diameter, crown volume, DBH, and location) and properties per stand (digital terrain model and stand density). Especially crown-related features are in most cases retrieved with high accuracy, whereas the estimates for DBH and location are less reliable, due to the airborne scanning setup.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

We study the H-chromatic symmetric functions X_G^H (introduced in (arXiv:2011.06063) as a generalization of the chromatic symmetric function (CSF) X_G), which track homomorphisms from the graph G to the graph H. We focus first on the case of self-chromatic symmetric functions (self-CSFs) X_G^G, making some progress toward a conjecture from (arXiv:2011.06063) that the self-CSF, like the normal CSF, is always different for different trees. In particular, we show that the self-CSF distinguishes trees from non-trees with just one exception, we check using Sage that it distinguishes all trees on up to 12 vertices, and we show that it determines the number of legs of a spider and the degree sequence of a caterpillar given its spine length. We also show that the self-CSF detects the number of connected components of a forest, again with just one exception. Then we prove some results about the power sum expansions for H-CSFs when H is a complete bipartite graph, in particular proving that the conjecture from (arXiv:2011.06063) about p-monotonicity of ω(X_G^H) for H a star holds as long as H is sufficiently large compared to G. We also show that the self-CSFs of complete multipartite graphs form a basis for the ring Λ of symmetric functions, and we give some construction of bases for the vector space Λ^n of degree n symmetric functions using H-CSFs X_G^H where H is a fixed graph that is not a complete graph, answering a question from (arXiv:2011.06063) about whether such bases exist. However, we show that there generally do not exist such bases with G fixed, even with loops, answering another question from (arXiv:2011.06063). We also define the H-chromatic polynomial as an analogue of the chromatic polynomial, and ask when it is the same for different graphs.

Model customization necessitates high-quality and diverse datasets, but acquiring such data remains time-consuming and labor-intensive. Despite the great potential of large language models (LLMs) for data synthesis, current approaches are constrained by limited seed data, model biases, and low-variation prompts, resulting in limited diversity and biased distributions with the increase of data scales. To tackle this challenge, we introduce TREESYNTH, a tree-guided subspace-based data synthesis approach inspired by decision trees. It constructs a spatial partitioning tree to recursively divide a task-specific full data space (i.e., root node) into numerous atomic subspaces (i.e., leaf nodes) with mutually exclusive and exhaustive attributes to ensure both distinctiveness and comprehensiveness before synthesizing samples within each atomic subspace. This globally dividing-and-synthesizing method finally collects subspace samples into a comprehensive dataset, effectively circumventing repetition and space collapse to ensure the diversity of large-scale data synthesis. Furthermore, the spatial partitioning tree enables sample allocation into atomic subspaces, allowing the rebalancing of existing datasets for more balanced and comprehensive distributions. Empirically, extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks consistently demonstrate the superior data diversity, model performance, and robust scalability of TREESYNTH compared to both human-crafted datasets and peer data synthesis methods, with an average performance gain reaching 10%. Besides, the consistent improvements of TREESYNTH-balanced datasets highlight its efficacious application to redistribute existing datasets for more comprehensive coverage and the induced performance enhancement. The code is available at https://github.com/cpa2001/TreeSynth.

The Automunge open source python library platform for tabular data pre-processing automates feature engineering data transformations of numerical encoding and missing data infill to received tidy data on bases fit to properties of columns in a designated train set for consistent and efficient application to subsequent data pipelines such as for inference, where transformations may be applied to distinct columns in "family tree" sets with generations and branches of derivations. Included in the library of transformations are methods to extract structure from bounded categorical string sets by way of automated string parsing, in which comparisons between entries in the set of unique values are parsed to identify character subset overlaps which may be encoded by appended columns of boolean overlap detection activations or by replacing string entries with identified overlap partitions. Further string parsing options, which may also be applied to unbounded categoric sets, include extraction of numeric substring partitions from entries or search functions to identify presence of specified substring partitions. The aggregation of these methods into "family tree" sets of transformations are demonstrated for use to automatically extract structure from categoric string compositions in relation to the set of entries in a column, such as may be applied to prepare categoric string set encodings for machine learning without human intervention.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Accurately quantifying tree cover is an important metric for ecosystem monitoring and for assessing progress in restored sites. Recent works have shown that deep learning-based segmentation algorithms are capable of accurately mapping trees at country and continental scales using high-resolution aerial and satellite imagery. Mapping at high (ideally sub-meter) resolution is necessary to identify individual trees, however there are few open-access datasets containing instance level annotations and those that exist are small or not geographically diverse. We present a novel open-access dataset for individual tree crown delineation (TCD) in high-resolution aerial imagery sourced from OpenAerialMap (OAM). Our dataset, OAM-TCD, comprises 5072 2048x2048 px images at 10 cm/px resolution with associated human-labeled instance masks for over 280k individual and 56k groups of trees. By sampling imagery from around the world, we are able to better capture the diversity and morphology of trees in different terrestrial biomes and in both urban and natural environments. Using our dataset, we train reference instance and semantic segmentation models that compare favorably to existing state-of-the-art models. We assess performance through k-fold cross-validation and comparison with existing datasets; additionally we demonstrate compelling results on independent aerial imagery captured over Switzerland and compare to municipal tree inventories and LIDAR-derived canopy maps in the city of Zurich. Our dataset, models and training/benchmark code are publicly released under permissive open-source licenses: Creative Commons (majority CC BY 4.0), and Apache 2.0 respectively.

The notion of shortcut partition, introduced recently by Chang, Conroy, Le, Milenkovi\'c, Solomon, and Than [CCLMST23], is a new type of graph partition into low-diameter clusters. Roughly speaking, the shortcut partition guarantees that for every two vertices u and v in the graph, there exists a path between u and v that intersects only a few clusters. They proved that any planar graph admits a shortcut partition and gave several applications, including a construction of tree cover for arbitrary planar graphs with stretch 1+varepsilon and O(1) many trees for any fixed varepsilon in (0,1). However, the construction heavily exploits planarity in multiple steps, and is thus inherently limited to planar graphs. In this work, we breach the "planarity barrier" to construct a shortcut partition for K_r-minor-free graphs for any r. To this end, we take a completely different approach -- our key contribution is a novel deterministic variant of the cop decomposition in minor-free graphs [And86, AGG14]. Our shortcut partition for K_r-minor-free graphs yields several direct applications. Most notably, we construct the first optimal distance oracle for K_r-minor-free graphs, with 1+varepsilon stretch, linear space, and constant query time for any fixed varepsilon in (0,1). The previous best distance oracle [AG06] uses O(nlog n) space and O(log n) query time, and its construction relies on Robertson-Seymour structural theorem and other sophisticated tools. We also obtain the first tree cover of O(1) size for minor-free graphs with stretch 1+varepsilon, while the previous best (1+varepsilon)-tree cover has size O(log^2 n) [BFN19].

The segmentation of forest LiDAR 3D point clouds, including both individual tree and semantic segmentation, is fundamental for advancing forest management and ecological research. However, current approaches often struggle with the complexity and variability of natural forest environments. We present ForestFormer3D, a new unified and end-to-end framework designed for precise individual tree and semantic segmentation. ForestFormer3D incorporates ISA-guided query point selection, a score-based block merging strategy during inference, and a one-to-many association mechanism for effective training. By combining these new components, our model achieves state-of-the-art performance for individual tree segmentation on the newly introduced FOR-instanceV2 dataset, which spans diverse forest types and regions. Additionally, ForestFormer3D generalizes well to unseen test sets (Wytham woods and LAUTx), showcasing its robustness across different forest conditions and sensor modalities. The FOR-instanceV2 dataset and the ForestFormer3D code are publicly available at https://bxiang233.github.io/FF3D/.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examples using far fewer resources than existing systems.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Vector similarity search presents significant challenges in terms of scalability for large and high-dimensional datasets, as well as in providing native support for hybrid queries. Serverless computing and cloud functions offer attractive benefits such as elasticity and cost-effectiveness, but are difficult to apply to data-intensive workloads. Jointly addressing these two main challenges, we present SQUASH, the first fully serverless vector search solution with rich support for hybrid queries. It features OSQ, an optimized and highly parallelizable quantization-based approach for vectors and attributes. Its segment-based storage mechanism enables significant compression in resource-constrained settings and offers efficient dimensional extraction operations. SQUASH performs a single distributed pass to guarantee the return of sufficiently many vectors satisfying the filter predicate, achieving high accuracy and avoiding redundant computation for vectors which fail the predicate. A multi-level search workflow is introduced to prune most vectors early to minimize the load on Function-as-a-Service (FaaS) instances. SQUASH is designed to identify and utilize retention of relevant data in re-used runtime containers, which eliminates redundant I/O and reduces costs. Finally, we demonstrate a new tree-based method for rapid FaaS invocation, enabling the bi-directional flow of data via request/response payloads. Experiments comparing SQUASH with state-of-the-art serverless vector search solutions and server-based baselines on vector search benchmarks confirm significant performance improvements at a lower cost.

Knowledge of tree species distribution is fundamental to managing forests. New deep learning approaches promise significant accuracy gains for forest mapping, and are becoming a critical tool for mapping multiple tree species at scale. To advance the field, deep learning researchers need large benchmark datasets with high-quality annotations. To this end, we present the PureForest dataset: a large-scale, open, multimodal dataset designed for tree species classification from both Aerial Lidar Scanning (ALS) point clouds and Very High Resolution (VHR) aerial images. Most current public Lidar datasets for tree species classification have low diversity as they only span a small area of a few dozen annotated hectares at most. In contrast, PureForest has 18 tree species grouped into 13 semantic classes, and spans 339 km^2 across 449 distinct monospecific forests, and is to date the largest and most comprehensive Lidar dataset for the identification of tree species. By making PureForest publicly available, we hope to provide a challenging benchmark dataset to support the development of deep learning approaches for tree species identification from Lidar and/or aerial imagery. In this data paper, we describe the annotation workflow, the dataset, the recommended evaluation methodology, and establish a baseline performance from both 3D and 2D modalities.

As computer vision continues to advance and finds widespread applications across various domains, the need for interpretability in deep learning models becomes paramount. Existing methods often resort to post-hoc techniques or prototypes to explain the decision-making process, which can be indirect and lack intrinsic illustration. In this research, we introduce ViTree, a novel approach for fine-grained visual categorization that combines the popular vision transformer as a feature extraction backbone with neural decision trees. By traversing the tree paths, ViTree effectively selects patches from transformer-processed features to highlight informative local regions, thereby refining representations in a step-wise manner. Unlike previous tree-based models that rely on soft distributions or ensembles of paths, ViTree selects a single tree path, offering a clearer and simpler decision-making process. This patch and path selectivity enhances model interpretability of ViTree, enabling better insights into the model's inner workings. Remarkably, extensive experimentation validates that this streamlined approach surpasses various strong competitors and achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining exceptional interpretability which is proved by multi-perspective methods. Code can be found at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepVisionLab/ViTree.

The growing popularity of wearable sensors has generated large quantities of temporal physiological and activity data. Ability to analyze this data offers new opportunities for real-time health monitoring and forecasting. However, temporal physiological data presents many analytic challenges: the data is noisy, contains many missing values, and each series has a different length. Most methods proposed for time series analysis and classification do not handle datasets with these characteristics nor do they offer interpretability and explainability, a critical requirement in the health domain. We propose an unsupervised method for learning representations of time series based on common patterns identified within them. The patterns are, interpretable, variable in length, and extracted using Byte Pair Encoding compression technique. In this way the method can capture both long-term and short-term dependencies present in the data. We show that this method applies to both univariate and multivariate time series and beats state-of-the-art approaches on a real world dataset collected from wearable sensors.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

CONTEXT The R programming language has a huge and active community, especially in the area of statistical computing. Its interpreted nature allows for several interesting constructs, like the manipulation of functions at run-time, that hinder the static analysis of R programs. At the same time, there is a lack of existing research regarding how these features, or even the R language as a whole are used in practice. OBJECTIVE In this paper, we conduct a large-scale, static analysis of more than 50 million lines of real-world R programs and packages to identify their characteristics and the features that are actually used. Moreover, we compare the similarities and differences between the scripts of R users and the implementations of package authors. We provide insights for static analysis tools like the lintr package as well as potential interpreter optimizations and uncover areas for future research. METHOD We analyze 4230 R scripts submitted alongside publications and the sources of 19450 CRAN packages for over 350000 R files, collecting and summarizing quantitative information for features of interest. RESULTS We find a high frequency of name-based indexing operations, assignments, and loops, but a low frequency for most of R's reflective functions. Furthermore, we find neither testing functions nor many calls to R's foreign function interface (FFI) in the publication submissions. CONCLUSION R scripts and package sources differ, for example, in their size, the way they include other packages, and their usage of R's reflective capabilities. We provide features that are used frequently and should be prioritized by static analysis tools, like operator assignments, function calls, and certain reflective functions like load.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Decision trees are renowned for their interpretability capability to achieve high predictive performance, especially on tabular data. Traditionally, they are constructed through recursive algorithms, where they partition the data at every node in a tree. However, identifying the best partition is challenging, as decision trees optimized for local segments may not bring global generalization. To address this, we introduce MetaTree, which trains a transformer-based model on filtered outputs from classical algorithms to produce strong decision trees for classification. Specifically, we fit both greedy decision trees and optimized decision trees on a large number of datasets. We then train MetaTree to produce the trees that achieve strong generalization performance. This training enables MetaTree to not only emulate these algorithms, but also to intelligently adapt its strategy according to the context, thereby achieving superior generalization performance.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Automatic analysis of the enormous sets of images is a critical task in life sciences. This faces many challenges such as: algorithms are highly parameterized, significant human input is intertwined, and lacking a standard meta-visualization approach. This paper proposes an alternative iterative approach for optimizing input parameters, saving time by minimizing the user involvement, and allowing for understanding the workflow of algorithms and discovering new ones. The main focus is on developing an interactive visualization technique that enables users to analyze the relationships between sampled input parameters and corresponding output. This technique is implemented as a prototype called Veni Vidi Vici, or "I came, I saw, I conquered." This strategy is inspired by the mathematical formulas of numbering computable functions and is developed atop ImageJ, a scientific image processing program. A case study is presented to investigate the proposed framework. Finally, the paper explores some potential future issues in the application of the proposed approach in parameter space analysis in visualization.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

This paper introduces PhyloLM, a method adapting phylogenetic algorithms to Large Language Models (LLMs) to explore whether and how they relate to each other and to predict their performance characteristics. Our method calculates a phylogenetic distance metrics based on the similarity of LLMs' output. The resulting metric is then used to construct dendrograms, which satisfactorily capture known relationships across a set of 111 open-source and 45 closed models. Furthermore, our phylogenetic distance predicts performance in standard benchmarks, thus demonstrating its functional validity and paving the way for a time and cost-effective estimation of LLM capabilities. To sum up, by translating population genetic concepts to machine learning, we propose and validate a tool to evaluate LLM development, relationships and capabilities, even in the absence of transparent training information.

This paper considers the learning of logical (Boolean) functions with focus on the generalization on the unseen (GOTU) setting, a strong case of out-of-distribution generalization. This is motivated by the fact that the rich combinatorial nature of data in certain reasoning tasks (e.g., arithmetic/logic) makes representative data sampling challenging, and learning successfully under GOTU gives a first vignette of an 'extrapolating' or 'reasoning' learner. We then study how different network architectures trained by (S)GD perform under GOTU and provide both theoretical and experimental evidence that for a class of network models including instances of Transformers, random features models, and diagonal linear networks, a min-degree-interpolator (MDI) is learned on the unseen. We also provide evidence that other instances with larger learning rates or mean-field networks reach leaky MDIs. These findings lead to two implications: (1) we provide an explanation to the length generalization problem (e.g., Anil et al. 2022); (2) we introduce a curriculum learning algorithm called Degree-Curriculum that learns monomials more efficiently by incrementing supports.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

The enduring legacy of Euclidean geometry underpins classical machine learning, which, for decades, has been primarily developed for data lying in Euclidean space. Yet, modern machine learning increasingly encounters richly structured data that is inherently nonEuclidean. This data can exhibit intricate geometric, topological and algebraic structure: from the geometry of the curvature of space-time, to topologically complex interactions between neurons in the brain, to the algebraic transformations describing symmetries of physical systems. Extracting knowledge from such non-Euclidean data necessitates a broader mathematical perspective. Echoing the 19th-century revolutions that gave rise to non-Euclidean geometry, an emerging line of research is redefining modern machine learning with non-Euclidean structures. Its goal: generalizing classical methods to unconventional data types with geometry, topology, and algebra. In this review, we provide an accessible gateway to this fast-growing field and propose a graphical taxonomy that integrates recent advances into an intuitive unified framework. We subsequently extract insights into current challenges and highlight exciting opportunities for future development in this field.

We present an elementary, self-contained proof of Grothendieck's inequality that unifies the real and complex cases and yields both the Krivine and Haagerup bounds, the current best-known explicit bounds for the real and complex Grothendieck constants respectively. This article is intended to be pedagogical, combining and streamlining known ideas of Lindenstrauss--Pe{\l}czy\'nski, Krivine, and Haagerup into a proof that need only univariate calculus, basic complex variables, and a modicum of linear algebra as prerequisites.

Discovering evolutionary traits that are heritable across species on the tree of life (also referred to as a phylogenetic tree) is of great interest to biologists to understand how organisms diversify and evolve. However, the measurement of traits is often a subjective and labor-intensive process, making trait discovery a highly label-scarce problem. We present a novel approach for discovering evolutionary traits directly from images without relying on trait labels. Our proposed approach, Phylo-NN, encodes the image of an organism into a sequence of quantized feature vectors -- or codes -- where different segments of the sequence capture evolutionary signals at varying ancestry levels in the phylogeny. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in producing biologically meaningful results in a number of downstream tasks including species image generation and species-to-species image translation, using fish species as a target example.

Identification of tree species plays a key role in forestry related tasks like forest conservation, disease diagnosis and plant production. There had been a debate regarding the part of the tree to be used for differentiation, whether it should be leaves, fruits, flowers or bark. Studies have proven that bark is of utmost importance as it will be present despite seasonal variations and provides a characteristic identity to a tree by variations in the structure. In this paper, a deep learning based approach is presented by leveraging the method of computer vision to classify 50 tree species, on the basis of bark texture using the BarkVN-50 dataset. This is the maximum number of trees being considered for bark classification till now. A convolutional neural network(CNN), ResNet101 has been implemented using transfer-learning based technique of fine tuning to maximise the model performance. The model produced an overall accuracy of >94% during the evaluation. The performance validation has been done using K-Fold Cross Validation and by testing on unseen data collected from the Internet, this proved the model's generalization capability for real-world uses.

In this manuscript, we show that any neural network with any activation function can be represented as a decision tree. The representation is equivalence and not an approximation, thus keeping the accuracy of the neural network exactly as is. We believe that this work provides better understanding of neural networks and paves the way to tackle their black-box nature. We share equivalent trees of some neural networks and show that besides providing interpretability, tree representation can also achieve some computational advantages for small networks. The analysis holds both for fully connected and convolutional networks, which may or may not also include skip connections and/or normalizations.

In symbolic regression, the goal is to find an analytical expression that accurately fits experimental data with the minimal use of mathematical symbols such as operators, variables, and constants. However, the combinatorial space of possible expressions can make it challenging for traditional evolutionary algorithms to find the correct expression in a reasonable amount of time. To address this issue, Neural Symbolic Regression (NSR) algorithms have been developed that can quickly identify patterns in the data and generate analytical expressions. However, these methods, in their current form, lack the capability to incorporate user-defined prior knowledge, which is often required in natural sciences and engineering fields. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel neural symbolic regression method, named Neural Symbolic Regression with Hypothesis (NSRwH) that enables the explicit incorporation of assumptions about the expected structure of the ground-truth expression into the prediction process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed conditioned deep learning model outperforms its unconditioned counterparts in terms of accuracy while also providing control over the predicted expression structure.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

The expressivity of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) has been studied broadly in recent years to reveal the design principles for more powerful GNNs. Graph canonization is known as a typical approach to distinguish non-isomorphic graphs, yet rarely adopted when developing expressive GNNs. This paper proposes to maximize the expressivity of GNNs by graph canonization, then the power of such GNNs is studies from the perspective of model stability. A stable GNN will map similar graphs to close graph representations in the vectorial space, and the stability of GNNs is critical to generalize their performance to unseen graphs. We theoretically reveal the trade-off of expressivity and stability in graph-canonization-enhanced GNNs. Then we introduce a notion of universal graph canonization as the general solution to address the trade-off and characterize a widely applicable sufficient condition to solve the universal graph canonization. A comprehensive set of experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. In many popular graph benchmark datasets, graph canonization successfully enhances GNNs and provides highly competitive performance, indicating the capability and great potential of proposed method in general graph representation learning. In graph datasets where the sufficient condition holds, GNNs enhanced by universal graph canonization consistently outperform GNN baselines and successfully improve the SOTA performance up to 31%, providing the optimal solution to numerous challenging real-world graph analytical tasks like gene network representation learning in bioinformatics.

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid.

The application of machine learning algorithms to source code has grown in the past years. Since these algorithms are quite sensitive to input data, it is not surprising that researchers experiment with input representations. Nowadays, a popular starting point to represent code is abstract syntax trees (ASTs). Abstract syntax trees have been used for a long time in various software engineering domains, and in particular in IDEs. The API of modern IDEs allows to manipulate and traverse ASTs, resolve references between code elements, etc. Such algorithms can enrich ASTs with new data and therefore may be useful in ML-based code analysis. In this work, we present PSIMiner - a tool for processing PSI trees from the IntelliJ Platform. PSI trees contain code syntax trees as well as functions to work with them, and therefore can be used to enrich code representation using static analysis algorithms of modern IDEs. To showcase this idea, we use our tool to infer types of identifiers in Java ASTs and extend the code2seq model for the method name prediction problem.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

We introduce HunyuanProver, an language model finetuned from the Hunyuan 7B for interactive automatic theorem proving with LEAN4. To alleviate the data sparsity issue, we design a scalable framework to iterative synthesize data with low cost. Besides, guided tree search algorithms are designed to enable effective ``system 2 thinking`` of the prover. HunyuanProver achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performances on major benchmarks. Specifically, it achieves a pass of 68.4% on the miniF2F-test compared to 65.9%, the current SOTA results. It proves 4 IMO statements (imo_1960_p2, imo_1962_p2}, imo_1964_p2 and imo_1983_p6) in miniF2F-test. To benefit the community, we will open-source a dataset of 30k synthesized instances, where each instance contains the original question in natural language, the converted statement by autoformalization, and the proof by HunyuanProver.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

A challenging problem in many modern machine learning tasks is to process weight-space features, i.e., to transform or extract information from the weights and gradients of a neural network. Recent works have developed promising weight-space models that are equivariant to the permutation symmetries of simple feedforward networks. However, they are not applicable to general architectures, since the permutation symmetries of a weight space can be complicated by recurrence or residual connections. This work proposes an algorithm that automatically constructs permutation equivariant models, which we refer to as universal neural functionals (UNFs), for any weight space. Among other applications, we demonstrate how UNFs can be substituted into existing learned optimizer designs, and find promising improvements over prior methods when optimizing small image classifiers and language models. Our results suggest that learned optimizers can benefit from considering the (symmetry) structure of the weight space they optimize. We open-source our library for constructing UNFs at https://github.com/AllanYangZhou/universal_neural_functional.

Phylogenetic comparative methods may fail to produce meaningful results when either the underlying model is inappropriate or the data contain insufficient information to inform the inference. The ability to measure the statistical power of these methods has become crucial to ensure that data quantity keeps pace with growing model complexity. Through simulations, we show that commonly applied model choice methods based on information criteria can have remarkably high error rates; this can be a problem because methods to estimate the uncertainty or power are not widely known or applied. Furthermore, the power of comparative methods can depend significantly on the structure of the data. We describe a Monte Carlo based method which addresses both of these challenges, and show how this approach both quantifies and substantially reduces errors relative to information criteria. The method also produces meaningful confidence intervals for model parameters. We illustrate how the power to distinguish different models, such as varying levels of selection, varies both with number of taxa and structure of the phylogeny. We provide an open-source implementation in the pmc ("Phylogenetic Monte Carlo") package for the R programming language. We hope such power analysis becomes a routine part of model comparison in comparative methods.

Hyperbolic geometry is gaining traction in machine learning for its effectiveness at capturing hierarchical structures in real-world data. Hyperbolic spaces, where neighborhoods grow exponentially, offer substantial advantages and consistently deliver state-of-the-art results across diverse applications. However, hyperbolic classifiers often grapple with computational challenges. Methods reliant on Riemannian optimization frequently exhibit sluggishness, stemming from the increased computational demands of operations on Riemannian manifolds. In response to these challenges, we present hyperDT, a novel extension of decision tree algorithms into hyperbolic space. Crucially, hyperDT eliminates the need for computationally intensive Riemannian optimization, numerically unstable exponential and logarithmic maps, or pairwise comparisons between points by leveraging inner products to adapt Euclidean decision tree algorithms to hyperbolic space. Our approach is conceptually straightforward and maintains constant-time decision complexity while mitigating the scalability issues inherent in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces. Building upon hyperDT we introduce hyperRF, a hyperbolic random forest model. Extensive benchmarking across diverse datasets underscores the superior performance of these models, providing a swift, precise, accurate, and user-friendly toolkit for hyperbolic data analysis.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Novel machine learning methods for tabular data generation are often developed on small datasets which do not match the scale required for scientific applications. We investigate a recent proposal to use XGBoost as the function approximator in diffusion and flow-matching models on tabular data, which proved to be extremely memory intensive, even on tiny datasets. In this work, we conduct a critical analysis of the existing implementation from an engineering perspective, and show that these limitations are not fundamental to the method; with better implementation it can be scaled to datasets 370x larger than previously used. Our efficient implementation also unlocks scaling models to much larger sizes which we show directly leads to improved performance on benchmark tasks. We also propose algorithmic improvements that can further benefit resource usage and model performance, including multi-output trees which are well-suited to generative modeling. Finally, we present results on large-scale scientific datasets derived from experimental particle physics as part of the Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/calo-forest.

Unsupervised parsing, also known as grammar induction, aims to infer syntactic structure from raw text. Recently, binary representation has exhibited remarkable information-preserving capabilities at both lexicon and syntax levels. In this paper, we explore the possibility of leveraging this capability to deduce parsing trees from raw text, relying solely on the implicitly induced grammars within models. To achieve this, we upgrade the bit-level CKY from zero-order to first-order to encode the lexicon and syntax in a unified binary representation space, switch training from supervised to unsupervised under the contrastive hashing framework, and introduce a novel loss function to impose stronger yet balanced alignment signals. Our model shows competitive performance on various datasets, therefore, we claim that our method is effective and efficient enough to acquire high-quality parsing trees from pre-trained language models at a low cost.

Given the generational gap in available hardware between lay practitioners and the most endowed institutions, LLMs are becoming increasingly inaccessible as they grow in size. Whilst many approaches have been proposed to compress LLMs to make their resource consumption manageable, these methods themselves tend to be resource intensive, putting them out of the reach of the very user groups they target. In this work, we explore the problem of structured pruning of LLMs using only forward passes. We seek to empower practitioners to prune models so large that their available hardware has just enough memory to run inference. We develop Bonsai, a gradient-free, perturbative pruning method capable of delivering small, fast, and accurate pruned models. We observe that Bonsai outputs pruned models that (i) outperform those generated by more expensive gradient-based structured pruning methods, and (ii) are twice as fast (with comparable accuracy) as those generated by semi-structured pruning methods requiring comparable resources as Bonsai. We also leverage Bonsai to produce a new sub-2B model using a single A6000 that yields state-of-the-art performance on 4/6 tasks on the Huggingface Open LLM leaderboard.

We propose Beam Tree Recursive Cell (BT-Cell) - a backpropagation-friendly framework to extend Recursive Neural Networks (RvNNs) with beam search for latent structure induction. We further extend this framework by proposing a relaxation of the hard top-k operators in beam search for better propagation of gradient signals. We evaluate our proposed models in different out-of-distribution splits in both synthetic and realistic data. Our experiments show that BTCell achieves near-perfect performance on several challenging structure-sensitive synthetic tasks like ListOps and logical inference while maintaining comparable performance in realistic data against other RvNN-based models. Additionally, we identify a previously unknown failure case for neural models in generalization to unseen number of arguments in ListOps. The code is available at: https://github.com/JRC1995/BeamTreeRecursiveCells.

We consider the problem of constructing small coresets for k-Median in Euclidean spaces. Given a large set of data points Psubset R^d, a coreset is a much smaller set Ssubset R^d, so that the k-Median costs of any k centers w.r.t. P and S are close. Existing literature mainly focuses on the high-dimension case and there has been great success in obtaining dimension-independent bounds, whereas the case for small d is largely unexplored. Considering many applications of Euclidean clustering algorithms are in small dimensions and the lack of systematic studies in the current literature, this paper investigates coresets for k-Median in small dimensions. For small d, a natural question is whether existing near-optimal dimension-independent bounds can be significantly improved. We provide affirmative answers to this question for a range of parameters. Moreover, new lower bound results are also proved, which are the highest for small d. In particular, we completely settle the coreset size bound for 1-d k-Median (up to log factors). Interestingly, our results imply a strong separation between 1-d 1-Median and 1-d 2-Median. As far as we know, this is the first such separation between k=1 and k=2 in any dimension.

Advancements in high-computing devices increase the necessity for improved and new understanding and development of smart manufacturing factories. Discrete-event models with simulators have been shown to be critical to architect, designing, building, and operating the manufacturing of semiconductor chips. The diffusion, implantation, and lithography machines have intricate processes due to their feedforward and feedback connectivity. The dataset collected from simulations of the factory models holds the promise of generating valuable machine-learning models. As surrogate data-based models, their executions are highly efficient compared to the physics-based counterpart models. For the development of surrogate models, it is beneficial to have publicly available benchmark simulation models that are grounded in factory models that have concise structures and accurate behaviors. Hence, in this research, a dataset is devised and constructed based on a benchmark model of an Intel semiconductor fabrication factory. The model is formalized using the Parallel Discrete-Event System Specification and executed using the DEVS-Suite simulator. The time series dataset is constructed using discrete-event time trajectories. This dataset is further analyzed and used to develop baseline univariate and multivariate machine learning models. The dataset can also be utilized in the machine learning community for behavioral analysis based on formalized and scalable component-based discrete-event models and simulations.

Pruning neural networks has become popular in the last decade when it was shown that a large number of weights can be safely removed from modern neural networks without compromising accuracy. Numerous pruning methods have been proposed since then, each claiming to be better than the previous. Many state-of-the-art (SOTA) techniques today rely on complex pruning methodologies utilizing importance scores, getting feedback through back-propagation or having heuristics-based pruning rules amongst others. In this work, we question whether this pattern of introducing complexity is really necessary to achieve better pruning results. We benchmark these SOTA techniques against a naive pruning baseline, namely, Global Magnitude Pruning (Global MP). Global MP ranks weights in order of their magnitudes and prunes the smallest ones. Hence, in its vanilla form, it is one of the simplest pruning techniques. Surprisingly, we find that vanilla Global MP outperforms all the other SOTA techniques and achieves a new SOTA result. It also achieves promising performance on FLOPs sparsification, which we find is enhanced, when pruning is conducted in a gradual fashion. We also find that Global MP is generalizable across tasks, datasets, and models with superior performance. Moreover, a common issue that many pruning algorithms run into at high sparsity rates, namely, layer-collapse, can be easily fixed in Global MP by setting a minimum threshold of weights to be retained in each layer. Lastly, unlike many other SOTA techniques, Global MP does not require any additional algorithm specific hyper-parameters and is very straightforward to tune and implement. We showcase our findings on various models (WRN-28-8, ResNet-32, ResNet-50, MobileNet-V1 and FastGRNN) and multiple datasets (CIFAR-10, ImageNet and HAR-2). Code is available at https://github.com/manasgupta-1/GlobalMP.

Ultra-fine-grained image recognition (UFGIR) categorizes objects with extremely small differences between classes, such as distinguishing between cultivars within the same species, as opposed to species-level classification in fine-grained image recognition (FGIR). The difficulty of this task is exacerbated due to the scarcity of samples per category. To tackle these challenges we introduce a novel approach employing down-sampling inter-layer adapters in a parameter-efficient setting, where the backbone parameters are frozen and we only fine-tune a small set of additional modules. By integrating dual-branch down-sampling, we significantly reduce the number of parameters and floating-point operations (FLOPs) required, making our method highly efficient. Comprehensive experiments on ten datasets demonstrate that our approach obtains outstanding accuracy-cost performance, highlighting its potential for practical applications in resource-constrained environments. In particular, our method increases the average accuracy by at least 6.8\% compared to other methods in the parameter-efficient setting while requiring at least 123x less trainable parameters compared to current state-of-the-art UFGIR methods and reducing the FLOPs by 30\% in average compared to other methods.

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

A major challenge of AI + Science lies in their inherent incompatibility: today's AI is primarily based on connectionism, while science depends on symbolism. To bridge the two worlds, we propose a framework to seamlessly synergize Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) and science. The framework highlights KANs' usage for three aspects of scientific discovery: identifying relevant features, revealing modular structures, and discovering symbolic formulas. The synergy is bidirectional: science to KAN (incorporating scientific knowledge into KANs), and KAN to science (extracting scientific insights from KANs). We highlight major new functionalities in the pykan package: (1) MultKAN: KANs with multiplication nodes. (2) kanpiler: a KAN compiler that compiles symbolic formulas into KANs. (3) tree converter: convert KANs (or any neural networks) to tree graphs. Based on these tools, we demonstrate KANs' capability to discover various types of physical laws, including conserved quantities, Lagrangians, symmetries, and constitutive laws.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Convex relaxations are a key component of training and certifying provably safe neural networks. However, despite substantial progress, a wide and poorly understood accuracy gap to standard networks remains, raising the question of whether this is due to fundamental limitations of convex relaxations. Initial work investigating this question focused on the simple and widely used IBP relaxation. It revealed that some univariate, convex, continuous piecewise linear (CPWL) functions cannot be encoded by any ReLU network such that its IBP-analysis is precise. To explore whether this limitation is shared by more advanced convex relaxations, we conduct the first in-depth study on the expressive power of ReLU networks across all commonly used convex relaxations. We show that: (i) more advanced relaxations allow a larger class of univariate functions to be expressed as precisely analyzable ReLU networks, (ii) more precise relaxations can allow exponentially larger solution spaces of ReLU networks encoding the same functions, and (iii) even using the most precise single-neuron relaxations, it is impossible to construct precisely analyzable ReLU networks that express multivariate, convex, monotone CPWL functions.

We address unsupervised discontinuous constituency parsing, where we observe a high variance in the performance of the only previous model. We propose to build an ensemble of different runs of the existing discontinuous parser by averaging the predicted trees, to stabilize and boost performance. To begin with, we provide comprehensive computational complexity analysis (in terms of P and NP-complete) for tree averaging under different setups of binarity and continuity. We then develop an efficient exact algorithm to tackle the task, which runs in a reasonable time for all samples in our experiments. Results on three datasets show our method outperforms all baselines in all metrics; we also provide in-depth analyses of our approach.

Despite much work on advanced deep learning and generative modeling techniques for tabular data generation and imputation, traditional methods have continued to win on imputation benchmarks. We herein present UnmaskingTrees, a simple method for tabular imputation (and generation) employing gradient-boosted decision trees which are used to incrementally unmask individual features. On a benchmark for out-of-the-box performance on 27 small tabular datasets, UnmaskingTrees offers leading performance on imputation; state-of-the-art performance on generation given data with missingness; and competitive performance on vanilla generation given data without missingness. To solve the conditional generation subproblem, we propose a tabular probabilistic prediction method, BaltoBot, which fits a balanced tree of boosted tree classifiers. Unlike older methods, it requires no parametric assumption on the conditional distribution, accommodating features with multimodal distributions; unlike newer diffusion methods, it offers fast sampling, closed-form density estimation, and flexible handling of discrete variables. We finally consider our two approaches as meta-algorithms, demonstrating in-context learning-based generative modeling with TabPFN.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Classification of cluster variables in cluster algebras (in particular, Grassmannian cluster algebras) is an important problem, which has direct application to computations of scattering amplitudes in physics. In this paper, we apply the tableaux method to classify cluster variables in Grassmannian cluster algebras C[Gr(k,n)] up to (k,n)=(3,12), (4,10), or (4,12) up to a certain number of columns of tableaux, using HPC clusters. These datasets are made available on GitHub. Supervised and unsupervised machine learning methods are used to analyse this data and identify structures associated to tableaux corresponding to cluster variables. Conjectures are raised associated to the enumeration of tableaux at each rank and the tableaux structure which creates a cluster variable, with the aid of machine learning.

We study inferring a tree-structured representation from a single image for object shading. Prior work typically uses the parametric or measured representation to model shading, which is neither interpretable nor easily editable. We propose using the shade tree representation, which combines basic shading nodes and compositing methods to factorize object surface shading. The shade tree representation enables novice users who are unfamiliar with the physical shading process to edit object shading in an efficient and intuitive manner. A main challenge in inferring the shade tree is that the inference problem involves both the discrete tree structure and the continuous parameters of the tree nodes. We propose a hybrid approach to address this issue. We introduce an auto-regressive inference model to generate a rough estimation of the tree structure and node parameters, and then we fine-tune the inferred shade tree through an optimization algorithm. We show experiments on synthetic images, captured reflectance, real images, and non-realistic vector drawings, allowing downstream applications such as material editing, vectorized shading, and relighting. Project website: https://chen-geng.com/inv-shade-trees

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

We present Generative Logic (GL), a deterministic architecture that begins from user-supplied axiomatic definitions -- written in a minimalist Mathematical Programming Language (MPL) -- and systematically explores their deductive neighborhood. Definitions are compiled into a distributed grid of simple Logic Blocks (LBs) that exchange messages; any time several expressions unify under an inference rule, a new fact is emitted with full provenance to its sources, yielding replayable, auditable proof graphs. A prototype software implementation instantiates the workflow on first-order Peano arithmetic. Starting only from the Peano axioms, GL enumerates candidate implications, applies normalization and type filters, and automatically reconstructs machine-checkable proofs of foundational arithmetic laws including associativity and commutativity of addition, associativity and commutativity of multiplication, and distributivity. Generated proofs export to navigable HTML so that every inference step can be inspected independently. We outline a hardware-software co-design path toward massively parallel realizations and describe prospective integration with probabilistic models (e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs)) for autoformalization and conjecture seeding. The Python and MPL code to reproduce the Peano experiments, along with the full HTML proof graphs, are available in the project's GitHub repository at https://github.com/Generative-Logic/GL/tree/35a111ea9ba53afe051703d6050be0c3923e9724 and are permanently archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16408441. We invite community feedback and collaboration.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.